Wednesday, May 10, 2006

+50 pips: FOMC Raises Interest Rates from 4.75% to 5% overnight, Will the Fed Raise Interest In June?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had decided raising the interest rates of 25 bps to 5% today. However, the consecutive 16th rate hike is not the main focus of the week. It's the speech that is what most traders are looking for. Below is the key statement from the speech from the FOMC:

"Some further policy firming may yet be needed to address inflation risks."


"The extent and timing of any rate increases will depend on the outlook for the economy."


"2 CPI Numbers, 2 PPI Numbers are crucial determining the June FOMC decision."


The Feds have choose the words with extreme caution to leave their options open, a possibility of a pause or a continuous hike in June 29th FOMC meeting. Upon the announcement of the rate hike, the EUR/USD dropped of almost 50 pips down from prior 1.2800, however, the significant strength of support at 1.2760 is undeniably strong and hard to break as 2 attempts to break the point after the announcement. I see a good opportunity for traders to get on the 'Euro-up-hill-train", when a small fundamental-retracement occur. Soon after the drop, the EUR/USD continue to break the highs and reached a high of 1.2833 of a point and building a support at 1.2810 area. A drop is also sighted for USD/CHF after ONLY 5 minutes after the announcement. The drop of the USD/CHF is however much larger than the gains in EUR/USD. The economy data from the US zone will now be crucial for the rate decision in June 29. However, the experience of FOMC meeting is always exciting to observe. Choppy markets and high volatility situations, however are very dangerous to trade. I managed to catch a trade @ 1.2760 after the FOMC announcement but failed to reach it. Seem like the Euro supporter is holding to their Euro hard. The bias is still Long EUR/USD. A reversal might be near and the rally might be an end. As I've said, 1.29 will be a crucial point. With this new system, I've yet to trade a reversal yet as I've been focusing on Long EUR/USD all the while ever since I am using Oanda Brokerage.

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Completed/Closed Trades
====================

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2760, TP @ 1.2810 ( +50 pips )

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Existing Trades
============

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2610 ( Position Trade )

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2810, TP @ 1.2860

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380, TP @ 1.2430

Long USD/ZAR @ 6.0500

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Trades I'm Waiting For
==================

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2860, TP @ 1.2910/00

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2280 ( Position Trade in exchange for the existing USD/CHF above)

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2330, TP @ 1.2380 ( 50 pips series will be continued with a series of 50 pips if reversal is detected for EUR/USD)


The German GDP will be reported tomorrow and will be one of the key sign that will push the ECB for a 50 bps hike in June. It's now the ECB vs. The Fed. However, seems the sentiment of "Bull Euro" has returned as it was previously that traders will ignore good data of the greenback and intensify the weakness of the greenback. For the Euro, it's totally reverse of the Greenback. We will see further raise of the Euro against the USD before a strong reversal to be seen.

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