Thursday, May 11, 2006

+203.5 pips: Highest Profit Booked Per Day, Reversal Sighted for EUR/USD.

Today is a terrible trading day during the Asian and London session although it's a special day for me. Personally, I couldn't beleive that the reversal would be sighted to quickly. After the Federal Reserve put a hike of 25 bps to 5.00% yesterday it turned out that the market is extremely choppy today. Seems like a left over of the rate decision. The market today is very uncertain. I've took profit of all my EUR/USD trade because of the following reasons.With the German GDP (QoQ) it was surprisingly lower-than-expected was released during the Asian and London session,which the price was then lingering around 1.2750, then continuously without any intention of gaining of prices then by the EUR/USD dropped to 1.2720. Surprisingly with the German GDP reported low, Euro-zone GDP reported matching the consensus... but still no reaction from EUR/USD except the price keeps on falling. Finally, a higher-than-expected GBP Industrial Production pushed the dollar so much lower for GBP/USD, but I've seen no movements or upwards at all for EUR/USD. It could be traders are taking advantage of the weak Euro today to sell EUR/GBP. These are all the reasons that helped me to decide wrapping up my position trade 1.2610 @ 1.27135 before the US data Advance Retail Sales, expecting it to be higher-than-expected or matching consensus which will add another reason for buying US dollar. Another reason i wrapped up 1.2610 is that I wouldn't be around to catch the US economy report. Well, I couldn't only say that I wouldn't want to take a risk in case it went against me.

We will see more data released tomorrow which will be another of fundamental day. The data released will be the German CPI,French CPI both QoQ & YoY. A US Trade Balance report which have reported much narrowed deficit last month which I feel will give us another surprise of even narrower Trade Deficit due to the currency gains of Yuan & Yen. I would mostly wouldn't make any trades tomorrow and take this opportunity to carefully observe the market and plan for the trade for next week, which I've been expecting a reversal. This reversal or a major retracement will be highly volatile has been expected since 2 weeks ago. The sign is now clear with a negative divergence were sighted earlier at 3h chart and now a cross reversal candle immediately after the closing of the New York Session. I've already planned and placed trades for USD/CHF from 1.2230 to 1.2430 but if a reversal really happens, then it should not stop until it reaches at least 1.26.

====================
Completed/Closed Trades
====================

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2610, Closed @ 1,2713.5 (+103.5 pips)

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2760, TP @ 1.2810 (+50 pips)

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2810, TP @ 1.2860 (+50 pips)

===========
Existing Trades
===========

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2280, TP @ 1.2330

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380, TP @ 1.2430

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.05

====================
Trades I'm Waiting For
====================

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2230 ( This will become my position trade )

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2330, TP @ 1.2380

A 50-pip series of USD/CHF trades will be placed accordingly if reversal happens. I've no longer position any trades for EUR/USD currently, but if EUR/USD decides to be bullish again, then I will position my trade after I'm sure of the market trend.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home