Geopolitical Tension Escalates... So does the Big Ben.
In the midst of growing violence in the Middle East may lead to war, slowing economic growth and incresing all prices are definately pain in the ass for everyone. The conflict in Lebanon stretched into a seventh day with Israeli forces attacking Hezbollah's Beirut headquarters and other targets as dozens of Hezbollah rockets hit northern Israel, including Haifa, the country's third-largest city. Plus, another small factor that tried to include itself to this 'massacre of the currency' is an earthquake of magnitude 7.7 struck south of Indonesia's Java island, triggering a tsunami and killing at least five people. India, which had yet to recover from the Mumbai bombing crisis has issued a local tsunami warning for the nation's Andaman and Nicobar Islands. How I really love this world is if just 1 bad thing happened, it's just like a rope tying all those events together and if 1 is triggered, others will happen as well, continuously. For this, it had to be the Iran Nuclear Crisis, North Korea Missle Launch, followed by Isreal attacking Lebanon, and then this quake.
For the data, Euro-zone CPI in June slowed as expected to 0.1% from 0.3% in May, while the annual figure remained at 2.5%. Core CPI in June also met estimates, coming in at 1.4% year over year, a notch above May’s reading of 1.4%. Industrial production numbers were a bit more impressive, beating the predicted 1.4% gain in May by hitting 1.6%, up from a downwardly revised reading of -0.7% in April. Meanwhile, Empire State Manufacturing index fell to 15.6 points in July after surging to 29 in June. It is the lowest reading since last October. The decrease was larger than expected as economists had expecting the July reading to fall back to 20.7 and the
key measure of inflationary pressures, Capacity utilization rose to 82.4%, the highest level in six years. Manufacturing and utility output each rose 0.7% in June, while the output of mines rose 1.2%. Production of consumer goods increased 0.8%. Production of business equipment increased 0.7%. Production of industrial supplies increased 0.6%. From the Eurozone CPI, which failed to show an impressive report continues the slide down of EUR/USD BUT Empire State Manufacturing did not able to push the dollar down even a bit, while the industrial production pushed the USD higher... This is where the fundamentals are useless when trader's are expecting war in Middle East especially when Isreali are accusing Iran of supplying the Lebanese the weapons and the nuke crisis is not over yet.
I've learnt a lesson on how the war factors could possibly ruin every trader's life. I've been through 'near-war' periods and USD was acting safe haven and gold escalates as well. What happened to Swiss Franc? I've learnt to switch my trades to USD when geo-political tensions arise such as the North Korea and the Iran issue. I closed 1 EUR/USD with a slight loss and took USD/CHF with all my available margin just to balance out my EUR/USD trades. Currently, things are looking well balanced for me in the mean time but I will not take profit on USD unless the Middle East eases out because as the war is still going on, no one would divert their cash from the 'safe haven' and I don't want to be a contrarian this time... NO WAY.
Gold prices reached the highest level in 2 weeks in early London session until the conflict in the Middle East has been regarded as excessively exaggerated by the rumours spreading around. It may be a profit taking session for traders before launching a second wave up, as what I've called it a 'healthy' grow of prices. A small retracement is always good as it accumulates 'energy' to move up to a new prices.
=====================
Trades Closed/Completed
=====================
Long EUR/USD @ 1.2650, Stopped @ 1.2602
==============
Existing Trades
==============
Long EUR/USD @ 1.2750
Long EUR/USD @ 1.2820
Long EUR/USD @ 1.2960
Long USD/CHF @ 1.2500
Long USD/CHF @ 1.2580
Long USD/CHF @ 1.2601
Long USD/CHF @ 1.2620
Euro traders, will have a hard time trading this week with war issues still going on and natural disasters reporting in. Heatwave in US is approaching fast... so quick install an air conditioner or something to cool yourself down.
For the data, Euro-zone CPI in June slowed as expected to 0.1% from 0.3% in May, while the annual figure remained at 2.5%. Core CPI in June also met estimates, coming in at 1.4% year over year, a notch above May’s reading of 1.4%. Industrial production numbers were a bit more impressive, beating the predicted 1.4% gain in May by hitting 1.6%, up from a downwardly revised reading of -0.7% in April. Meanwhile, Empire State Manufacturing index fell to 15.6 points in July after surging to 29 in June. It is the lowest reading since last October. The decrease was larger than expected as economists had expecting the July reading to fall back to 20.7 and the
key measure of inflationary pressures, Capacity utilization rose to 82.4%, the highest level in six years. Manufacturing and utility output each rose 0.7% in June, while the output of mines rose 1.2%. Production of consumer goods increased 0.8%. Production of business equipment increased 0.7%. Production of industrial supplies increased 0.6%. From the Eurozone CPI, which failed to show an impressive report continues the slide down of EUR/USD BUT Empire State Manufacturing did not able to push the dollar down even a bit, while the industrial production pushed the USD higher... This is where the fundamentals are useless when trader's are expecting war in Middle East especially when Isreali are accusing Iran of supplying the Lebanese the weapons and the nuke crisis is not over yet.
I've learnt a lesson on how the war factors could possibly ruin every trader's life. I've been through 'near-war' periods and USD was acting safe haven and gold escalates as well. What happened to Swiss Franc? I've learnt to switch my trades to USD when geo-political tensions arise such as the North Korea and the Iran issue. I closed 1 EUR/USD with a slight loss and took USD/CHF with all my available margin just to balance out my EUR/USD trades. Currently, things are looking well balanced for me in the mean time but I will not take profit on USD unless the Middle East eases out because as the war is still going on, no one would divert their cash from the 'safe haven' and I don't want to be a contrarian this time... NO WAY.
Gold prices reached the highest level in 2 weeks in early London session until the conflict in the Middle East has been regarded as excessively exaggerated by the rumours spreading around. It may be a profit taking session for traders before launching a second wave up, as what I've called it a 'healthy' grow of prices. A small retracement is always good as it accumulates 'energy' to move up to a new prices.
=====================
Trades Closed/Completed
=====================
Long EUR/USD @ 1.2650, Stopped @ 1.2602
==============
Existing Trades
==============
Long EUR/USD @ 1.2750
Long EUR/USD @ 1.2820
Long EUR/USD @ 1.2960
Long USD/CHF @ 1.2500
Long USD/CHF @ 1.2580
Long USD/CHF @ 1.2601
Long USD/CHF @ 1.2620
Euro traders, will have a hard time trading this week with war issues still going on and natural disasters reporting in. Heatwave in US is approaching fast... so quick install an air conditioner or something to cool yourself down.
posted by 4xTrader at
11:30 PM
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