ECB & BOE Leaves Benchmark Interest Rates Unchanged.

Both Central Banks had made decisions to leaves their interest rates unchanged for the month. However, for the European Central Bank (ECB) may indicate it's ready to raise borrowing costs as soon as next month to counter inflation. The head of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, warned that the central bank would not hesitate to take tough measures to curb inflation and used the word 'strong vigilance' against inflation, suggesting the ECB will raise its benchmark lending rate as soon as next month.

"We will exercise strong vigilance so as to ensure that risks to price stability over the medium term do not materialise," - Jean Claude Trichet

The bank has an inflation target of 2%, but European statistics body Eurostat said prices rose 2.5% in the year to June - the third month in a row that inflation was above the target level. The growth in the Eurozone economy is robust with the day's industrial production reported that European manufacturing expanded in June by the most since August 2000 and services grew at the fastest pace in six years. Euro-region unemployment declined in May to the lowest since October 2001, pushing the jobless rate to 7.9%. For the Bloomberg Retail PMI released today, the Eurozone Retail PMI fell to 55.1 in June from 56.3 in May. There were falls in the Retail PMIs in Germany and Italy with a number of 54.7 from 60.4 and 48.9 from 49.3 respectively. However, the most surprisingly as-usual-weak-country France showed a significant surge in the Retail PMI to as high as 60.3 from 56.9. These number reported adding salt-to-injury to the Euro currency and and reaching as low as 1.2723 after the release. German Factory Orders for the month of May dropped 1.2% from April BUT showed an impressive increment compared from the previous year, a number of 17.3% increase and luckily the news were not taken as a bearish signal for traders in the market.

For the US Market, we've only a few release for the day as STILL the weekly main focus will be on the Non-Farm Payroll of the week with the expectations this time very much higher than expected from the fellow traders of the world since the release of a private report estimated U.S. companies added 368,000 jobs in June, the most since 2001. How far is that true? We'll find that out pretty soon. For the day we have ISM Non-Manufacturing Indexed for the month of June showing weaker number of 57 compared to 60.1 in the month of May. ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices too showed a weaker number of 73.9 to 77.5 in June. These so-called 'weak' reports has a little influence on the market signalling infaltion target in the country but does a little help for the EUR/USD currency to gain some grounds lost after the missile launch. There were some reports today that saying slower retail sales gains as a jump in gasoline prices curbed spending and flooding discouraged shoppers on the U.S. East Coast in June. This has added to another point that the economic growth in the US is cooling considerably BUT as a point here is important is that IF people continue to have jobs they will continue the spending. Here we'll have it back to the highlight, another weak NFP for the month and we'll mostly see Fed pausing in August which DIRECTLY means USD is gonna take a jump off the cliff. But if it happens otherwise, we'll see USD gathering more ground against the major crosses across the globe.

I frankly speaks that my analysis for the NFP will not change and will stick to my results of 50K to 85K for this month. Even an improvement recovery in the employment status for the US will not surge as much as expected from what I see with the economy now is cooling and prices is still up high. However, I'm predicting that the Hourly Earnings for the month would be particularly high as the employers decide not to recruit more staffs in the company, they would eventually raise some of their salary. A very simple link of my analysis between the Non-Farm Payroll and Average Hourly Earnings.

I was practically not home to watch the prices and charts yesterday as I had some travelling to made leaving me perfectly clueless of what happened for the day. For my live account, I have it well balanced with 3 EUR/USD and 3 USD/CHF in case either way bulls or ECB President is dovish. BUT for my Demo account which is responsible to provide results for the month by just scalping 10 pips per day, has a huge loss for the day. I made some silly mistakes which I shouldn't have... Trading with a tired mind and body and trading without catching up with the fundamentals. These 2 mistakes made me lost almost of $60'000 in my account, and not to mention taking every profit I've made previously plus a big hole of my starting fund. So a word of advise... Always keep a clear mind and get your fundamentals updated before you place a trade eventhough it looks very attractive to you from the chart.