Friday, May 12, 2006

EUR/USD reaches 1.2957, will it reach 1.30?

Will EUR/USD break 1.30 barrier? It might with the traders still on Euro bull. For the fundamentals today, The German CPI, French CPI in line with expectations. The bulls continue to rush upwards until the US Trade Balance reported much lower-than-expected deficit of -62 bil vs. -67 bil consensus. Technically, all signs show for a reversal, but fundamentally, it's the traders that keep pushing EUR/USD to a higher limit. Overshooting will definately occur on EUR/USD on this what i called unhealthy rise, which I feel a continuous rise without a minor retracement is unhealthy and totally unbalanced. I'm now wearing an American Cap, with my hands waving the US flags. I'm now on one-sided trading, all on Long USD/CHF without even a single trade of EUR/USD. This is practically not my style of trading but I guess with this experience, I will get to understand my system more in practical, not only on theory basis. I'm feeling not comfortable seeing a huge negative on my trading screen with nothing to balance it, makes me feel extremely vulnerable and unprotected. Now, the only choice I have is to wait patiently for a reversal which I expect to be next week after a few days of range trading. Hopefully this is the last spike of EUR/USD psychologically testing it how far it could go then head for a retracement at 1.23 then head upwards again to test 1.35 ground. A perfect scenario, in fact a dream scenario.

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Existing Trades
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Long USD/CHF @ 1.2000 ( Position Trade )

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2050, TP @ 1.2100

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2280, TP @ 1.2330

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380, TP @ 1.2430

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Trades I'm Waiting For
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50-pips series continuous from 1.2000 except the existing ones above.

This marks the end of the second week trading for May. I'm looking forward for a more profitable 3rd week of trading which carries the hope of getting back in line with my equity curve that marks the $177.27 mark by the end of the third week excluding interest rates. I'm now at only $159.31. Hope and pray hard.

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