Thursday, July 20, 2006

Dovish Bernanke, Weaker Dollar spotted.

No traders care how many important officials did Hezbollah killed or did he bombed any buildings over the Middle East conflict which was then the major focus of the traders from all over the world. No one cared knew if Indonesia was hit with the 10th tsunami with 100 metres wave. The highlight WAS on the geopolitical instabilities until our US Superman Ben "S" Bernanke stepped in and took the spotlight.

Starting with higher PPI raising expectations that the Fed might increase interest rates after-all in early August. Then then higher core-CPI signalled inflation while CPI showed 0.2% for consecutive 6 months showed no sign of slowdown in inflation. The Big "S" Ben Bernanke stepped in and made changed on the overall sentiment, saving the world's largest economy by showing concern on slower growth and real estate industry that might hurt the economy.

Today's second round for Ben Bernanke, this time testifies before the House Panel again on the topic of interest, Monetary Policy. He repeats the dovish statements stating concerns on several important issues such as real estate slowdown, economic transition phase and particularly saying that inflation is contained but the Federal Reserve will maintain it's vigilant on inflation. Non supportive data came out with Manufacturing in the Philadelphia area expanded at a slower pace this month as costs increased and new orders slowed. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index fell to 6.0 in July from 13.1 in June. The gauge averaged 12.4 in 2005. Readings above zero signal expansion. Businesses may be growing reluctant to step up production amid signs that consumer demand is cooling as interest rates rise. The report reinforces expectations of slower economic growth that may herald a pause in the Fed's series of interest- rate increases. However, US Leading Indicators Index in June rose 0.1% from -0.6% the previous month but the data released is lower than consensus. This index is boosted by higher consumer confidence and improvement in the labor market that will keep the economy from faltering.

The unsupportive dollar data and specifically dovish Bernanke has taken the dollar for a dive in the deep blue sea extending their losses against the euro on speculation Federal Reserve policy makers are approaching the end of their more than two-year cycle of interest-rate increases. Gold jumped more than 2 percent Wednesday as the dollar fell after comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that suggested U.S. interest rates may be held steady at the Fed's next policy meeting.

No change of trades since yesterday except the ones in the demo account where I took the loss in the negative trades and let the profit ones gain. I'll judge on it tomorrow and see if I should take profit on it since it's reached 17% profit/ $17000 profit. Things are doing very good now.

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