Tuesday, June 27, 2006

Euro Consolidates Against Dollar As Traders Fear Slower Economic Growth.

Traders continue to sell the greenback today as traders fear slower economic growth in the world's largest market. Dollar continue to be sold until it reaches a support at 1.2562 for EUR/USD during the Asian Session and it's pretty much range trading from then but sign were still showing that traders are favoring Euro for the day as FOMC meeting is just 2 days away.

The day started with Eurozone data, stating German Import Price Index match consensus of 0.2% for the month of May. Meanwhile German IFO Business Climate reported higher than expected, 106.8 in June vs. 105.6 in May marking 15 year high for the business climate. Italy Business Confidence reported higher as well for the month of June signalling the Eurozone is capable to adapt higher interest rates. These reports does do a little help for the 12-nation currency but fails to bring it higher as well. But it's definately enough to dumb-found the dollar bull traders. US Confidence in June raised higher than expected as Americans' outlook for the job market improved. Rising confidence may temper the slowdown in consumer spending that's forecast to reduce the pace of economic growth this year. Confident the economy will keep expanding, Federal Reserve policy makers are forecast to raise interest rates later this week to combat higher inflation. However, Existing Home Sales reported dropped as much as 1.2 percent drop in May to the slowest pace in four months as higher interest rates damped buying activity. This has been added to another factor to the US economy showing the interest rates is hurting the real estate industry in the country. Adding salt to injury is the Deputy governor of China's central bank advocates diversifying away from dollar for trade, reserve assets and gradually rely less on the dollar for trade and their foreign exchange reserves. My analysis was proven correct as these reports were coming out inline with my expectations. Feels real good when you're right~

I've not make much difference in my trades today as it's much of range trading for me today. I'n hoping much bigger movements for tomorrow as FOMC meetings starts tomorrow.

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