Thursday, June 22, 2006

Greenback pushed backed up by worldwide crisis.

The EUR/USD is back to the 1.24 zone after a retracement to 1.2320 low reached earlier in the Asian Session. Fundamentally, the dollar is supported by several factors including geo-political issues from North Korea.

The dollar gained against the yen and the euro after North Korea accused the U.S. of sending spy planes into its air space, raising concerns about increased military tension in the region. Japan's currency fell to a record low against the euro on June 19 on reports North Korea was preparing to fire a long-range missile. The U.S. and China are pressing North Korea to call off a possible missile test. The dollar has also gained in the past month as traders added to bets the Federal Reserve, which meets again next week, will raise interest rates twice more this year.

``The ceaseless illegal intrusion of the planes has created a grave danger of military conflict in the air above the region,'' North Korea's government said in a statement carried today on its official Korea Central News Agency. ``Such grave military provocations only precipitate its self-destruction,'' the statement said, referring to the U.S.


From the economic releases from the US, intial jobless claims from last week has rise from the 4-month low BUT it's still below the original consensus. So it was interpreted by the market as a dollar positive data. However, USD rally is contained once again with the leading indicators for the month of May fell to 9-month low to -0.6% vs -0.1% from the prior month. The consensus was however -0.4% but it's -0.2% lower than expected, once again signalling the robust pace of growth earlier this year will give way to a slower expansion.

``It looks like this is going to be another soft patch,'' said Haseeb Ahmed, an economist at JPMorgan Chase Bank in New York. ``The Fed is going to get exactly what it was hoping for, but unfortunately the inflation numbers are just not helping.''


Finally as for the British Currency, The pound fell the most in two weeks against the dollar, and futures traders trimmed bets of higher interest rates, after the Bank of England said policy maker David Walton unexpectedly died yesterday following a short illness.

For my own point of view, fundamentally, the dollar will suffer from the long term economic slowdown as the effect from the high interest rates, cooling housing data, low unemployment, and several issues that once was not a problem will soon surface. For this week, I'll be seeing USD will be lower for the Asian session often due to Friday sell offs. From techinical views, it's just range trading for this week of 100 pips.

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Trades Completed/Closed
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Box Trading for USD/CHF Profit $11.63

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Existing Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2583

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2637

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2650

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2820

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2960

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.0500

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.5800

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.7000

News of higher deficit from the South Africa account balance really upsets me as it is pushing the rand currency to 7.4 high today. It's getting crazy... The rand has fallen 13.8 percent to 7.3 per dollar since May 12, the day gold touched a 26-year high. Gold, which has lost about 18 percent since then, accounts for 13 percent of exports of Africa's biggest economy.

I'm looking forward to close at least 2 of my EUR/USD to minimize my weekend profit loss of interest rate. Not being stingy but at such a small amount in my account right now, I should be wasting every single cents in it. Demo test of my new system looks great and very convincing, I will be be attempting to trade with high leverage and looking for just 10 pips per trade. Still testing on demo and results will be posted here. My overall bias remains Euro bullish to reach and break 1.3 zone as I'm pretty sure that the whole world is waiting for it.

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