German GFK Consumer Confidence Highest In 5 Years.

I'd personally wouldn't expect much today from the market as the big day is only 1 day away. The whole world is basically waiting for the Ben 'Beast' Bernanke for his 25 bps hike and a possible of 50 bps hike. I've read researches and analysis from several banks and most of them would advise buying the greenbank. For me, I would be a contrarian for this time, as I expect the Fed to be dovish, 25 bps hike this month, and he might be neutral in his speak after the hike. History repeats itself like the previous week with a fake hike in EUR/USD and end the week with lower value. No doubt that the FOMC hike will be a support and demand for for the greenback. However, I am seeing a rapid recovery from the EUR/USD IF the Fed is concern about the economic growth as well.

Tomorrow will be plenty of data reports due tomorrow, so it'll definately be a very busy day with lots of data to analyse and so little time. Highlights for the day would be Swiss CPI, German ILO Unemployment Change and Unemployment Rate, French GDP, French Unemployment Rate and Unemployment Change, Eurozone M3, GDP Annualized and Price Index, Personal Consumption, Core PCE and FINALLY FOMC Rate Decision. Sounds like alot to do isn't it? Sure does...

So I'll start with the main dish, FOMC Rate Decision... a 25 bps hike with a neutral comment from Bernanke, something like being data dependant on the coming months to determine the future hike or pause. Swiss CPI is expected to be higher than the previous month, I would say it would most probably matching consensus as the Swiss will do another rate hike next month. German Unemplyoment Rate and Change however is expecting a slightly lower than expect consensus than the previous month. BUT, I would say that it would be higher than consensus, partially due to the world event held in the country for the month. French GDP will be higher than consensus or matching consensus signalling higher cost for domestic consumer products calling for interest rate hike in the Eurozone. Since the core PCE price index is a measure of average consumer prices, excluding the food and energy components, which tend to fluctuate quite a lot. There's no proper consensus for the Personal Consumption and the core PCE but according to my analysis I'll be expecting a stronger number in supporting the Fed for further rate hike. I'm personally not favoring this kind of indicator but these fundamental indicators are lagging indicators, what happened the previous month of slower is only reported. So, I'm still seeing negative dollar for medium term and long term basis.

I closed a trade today for EUR/USD when a bearish candle was formed during the NY session, speculated by traders in New York. The current push in the market is the interest rate issue and economic growth. The result will be released tomorrow and I'll be hoping for the best to happen.