Tuesday, May 16, 2006

EUR/USD & USD/CHF Channel Formed, Going UP or going DOWN?

The battle of the week has started today with channels form as a bloodbath battle between the Bull and the Bear. Who will win? The stage is set for the bloody battle that will take place tomorrow with billions of players on the line and trillions of cash waiting to be traded. The range bound trading today is super tight with only 50 pips range for EUR/USD and 60 pips for USD/CHF, each preparing for the big fight tomorrow. Euro bulls are seen temporarily sidelined waiting for more data to indicate the June FOMC rate pause as a signal again for the Euro to bull again. These sidelined traders are gathering ammunitions to be used for tomorrow's battle, between 2 parties and a whole load of cash. Since I'm hedging I will profit from whichever direction the market moves, making me as the Trader-On-The-Fence. But I do have a perfect scenario that works best for me to get maximum profit in this battle leaving me alive, slightly richer from the money taken by the 'dead' traders. I would hope to see the fundamentals released in the Eurozone push the EUR/USD to reach 1.3075, then for risk-averse Euro bull traders, they would take profit and jumping on the USD bull's back would likely create a retracement, a major one where a quick retracement and volatility will be expected. It could last for days or until the end of the week. I would hope to see that EUR/USD retraced to 1.2300 and then reverse going high up where the sky is the limit for EUR/USD. I would earn hundreds of pips throughout this process and hopefully enough to get me back on my equity line which is still in the weekly deficit.

Today's highly anticipated data was disappointing for the USD bull traders, which reported weak Core CPI and Housing Starts although CPI reported slightly higher than expected of 0.9% vs. 0.7% consensus. It was overall bearish data for the greenback which adds another reason of why traders should sell the dollar instead of buying them. Tomorrow we'll be expecting French Non-Farm Payroll report, ILO Unemployment Report from the GBP, Eurozone CPI, Core CPI & Industrial Production and the highlight of the day would be US data of CPI & Core CPI which will determine the Federal Reserve Rate hike decision at the FOMC meeting in June. But I strongly believe that if the CPI reported was weaker than expected, the Euro bulls will take place and probably pushing the EUR/USD to a high of 1.40 breaking the 2005 high. BUT with the dollar losing so much ground to the Euro in such short time, I believe we would see the bank intervention by the Federal Reserve to gain back some grounds by raising interest rates UNEXPECTEDLY that will almost immediately kill millions of Euro Bull traders. This is a point where it must be highly observed.

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Existing Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2860 ( Position Trade )

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2960, TP @ 1.3010

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2140 ( Position Trade )

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2280, TP @ 1.2330

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380, TP @ 1.2430

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Trades I'm Waiting For
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2900 ( Position Trade )

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2170 ( Position Trade )

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2190, TP @ 1.2240 ( 50-pips series from 1.2140 )

I'm heavily engaged in USD/CHF more than EUR/USD and I will have to equilibrate my trades properly to avoid margin call caused by USD/CHF in case EUR/USD went too far from expected or vice versa. I just hope to that I don't have to manage 3 negative trades on the opposite direction of the trend. Tomorrow will be The Day...

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