Thursday, June 08, 2006

+126 pips: USD bulls before ECB rate hike.

The long waited ECB rate hike is finally here today. From yesterday, market has been still in USD bull as it's still unsure of the rate hike by the ECB would be 25 bps or 50 bps. More excellent Euro-zone data was released yesterday as Eurozone Retail PMI and Eurozone Retail Sales were reported higher than consensus. Even with continuous strong supporting data to the ECB failed to rally Euro yesterday as USD continue to bull following by the speculation and the expectations from the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. I closed my USD/CHF trades early yesterday before the hike to 1.2240 level because I wasn't expecting further hike in the pair. As for gold, further drop in prices were spotted as gold continue to make new lows in the down trend channel to a low of 616.95. I've decided not to take anymore trades in gold as it's really not suitable for my account margin to sustain more damage, I guess 2 is enough. I shall resume my gold trade when my USD/CHF trades is able to equilibrate my trade in gold in case it turns bad.

I'm preparing trades for the ECB rate hike. I will buy EUR/USD @ 1.2785 which is the close of yesterday and USD/CHF @ 1.2220. Both currency pairs are now trading below the closing price of yesterday. I'm all well hoping for ECB to hike 50 bps. If it's this way, I could clear my long time pain in the ass USD/ZAR trades and EUR/USD would bring me some profitable trades and close my 1.2960 trade which I've held for a long time.

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Closed/Completed Trades
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Long USD/CHF @ 1.2150, TP @ 1.2200 ( +50 pips )

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2100, Closed @ 1.2176 ( +76 pips )

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Existing Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2820

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2960

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2280

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.7000

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.5800

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.0500

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Trades I'm Waiting For
===================

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2785

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2220

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