Friday, June 02, 2006

Non Farm Payroll Lowest Since September 2001, Big Bear Knocks On USD Hard.

Thank goodness it's another Euro day. Every traders in the world was nervous about the NFP data today as I will determine highly for the June 29 FOMC rate decision. The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected for a second month in May and wage growth slowed, suggesting employers were wary of stepping up hiring at a time when growth shows signs of cooling. The 75,000 gain in payrolls followed a revised 126,000 April increase that was lower than the government initially reported, Labor Department figures showed today. Economists expected a 170,000 increase. The unemployment rate fell to 4.6 percent last month from 4.7 percent. A weakening of the labor market may make it harder for workers to demand pay increases. Smaller wage gains help reduce the risk of inflation and provide leeway for those Federal Reserve policy makers leaning toward an end to two years of interest-rate increases.

It was said that a number lower than 150K is considered bearish USD. This clearly is one of the good start in diminishing the hopes for USD bull traders to get out of our way, the EURO bulls! Although this is a crucial report, but somehow it will still depend on the upcoming data from the US to show more about slower economic growth and inflation is contained. A confirmation from the Fed to pause the interest rates would be very helpful. We will roughly see the Fed's actions during the Beige Book report, 2 weeks prior the Fed FOMC Rate Decision. Other than super weak USD data, the Euro zone data proved once again that strong economic growth is happening in the Eurozone and much rate hike is needed. We saw the Eurozone PPI for month of April and yearly matched consensus, higher percentage than the previous month.

I've positioned a series of USD/ZAR trades all the way down and hopefully I will get break even at a higher price and close the negative trade I've held for such a long time. Currently these trades will continue to provide me daily interest and hopefully it's enough to breakeven with the interest I have to pay to EUR/USD and Gold. I was holding only 2 USD/ZAR trades yesterday and it's insufficient to cover these interest that cost me 5 cents per day. As I've not fully recovered from my losses in gold yet, I wish not to get drained from this daily interest that's charged on me. For EUR/USD, I've a complete series of 50-pip trades all the way up to 1.3010. I will start taking profit when EUR/USD reaches 1.2960 and so on. As for USD/CHF, I still have to manage 2 negative trades and as these trades were made on early stages of my trading with low leverage, I should have no problem handling the negative. Gold has finally shown some light on me as the price went back up easing my account with more margin available. I'm prepared to take another trade in Gold on breakout level $666.00. Yup, the devil's number.

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Existing Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2800

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2860

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2910, TP @ 1.2960

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2960, TP @ 1.3010

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2280

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.7000

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.5800

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.0500

Long XAU/USD @ 648.80

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Trades I'm Waiting or
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.3010, TP @ 1.3060 ( 50-pip trades )

Long XAU/USD @ 666.00

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.5000

I will try to take advantage of this USD bear sentiment to try gaining as much as possible and hopefully gold is able to return what I've lost to the market previously. I will expect the EUR/USD will breach 1.3000 within next week as the ECB rate hike will take place. May the best happen to all Euro bull traders.

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