-1725 pips: Another bad trade in gold.

I have to say I hate Ben Bernanke alot... not only he stirred the whole market sentiment in forex to the other way, I also hate him for crashing my trading account with FXCM about 2 months ago when he made his 'irresponsible' comments to the CNBC reporter. Today is rather a bull USD day than suppose to be Euro bull day. Ben Bernanke knows about the slower economic growth and he doesn't give a damn about it. Inflations is the only focus he's suppose to pay attention to as he claims himself the inflation-curb warriror.

Alright, anger time is over.Reminder to myself that I need to get my emotional detached from trading. From my possible view of analysis after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made his speech yesterday in Washington, Here's my analysis,

He knows about the slower economic growth and the weak dollar at the moment. Of course, he knows that raising interest rates at these time will totally incapacitate the US economy but why does he still sound hawkish? It's because he's got no choice. As a Federal Reserve chairman, he has several responsibilities and issues in several aspects to consider, the currency value and the economic growth, which in the other hand means inflation/deflation issue. The speech were made hawkish by Ben Bernanke is because, firstly, to prevent furher losses in the currency. If he'd made dovish statements, I have absolutely no doubts that EUR/USD would break 1.3000 level before NY session closed yesterday. Secondly, he did mentioned to keep the Federal Reserve as transparent as possible meaning the economic reports will directly influence the decisions made by the Federal Reserve. In this case, we will see plenty more of USD economy reports released before the June 29 FOMC meeting. IF we see weak CPI numbers for the month of May, or core-GDP for instances, then I would believe that he would have a reason to go back on his words made yesterday at Washington and suggest a rate pause afterall. But on the other hand, if the core CPI or GDP prices is reported as high as it's expected or above his 'comfort zone' for the inflation, then he would just go as initially planned. The main outlook, according to my views, is that Ben Bernanke is just delaying the drop in the greenback to a later date in the month. I would say no harm being hawkish at this point and he still has chances to go back on his words if the inflation is contained. Not that I like him being hawkish though...

I've closed 2 of my position trades in EUR/USD after the big drop and took profit with 155 pips, leaving me with 1 EUR/USD trade at 1.2960 seeking to take profit where mostly every traders are targetting, 1.3010. My gold position is terrible and it continued to drop today, I realised that I couldn't afford another big negative in my account as I haven't fully recovered from traumatic blow of $ -25 from my previous gold trade too. I've decided to place a stop loss for my gold trade at 630 expecting the worse of $ -18.80... and indeed it was closed. Another traumatic blow to my account and again, in gold. Failing in my initial 2 trades in gold, I'm starting to convince myself that I'm not suppose to trade gold before my account reaches a sum of amount where I can make the similar amount of money on EUR/USD or USD/CHF with gold. This blow will bring me another 1 month back in my equity curve totalling up to 2 months lag.

As for the overall currency views, I do not expect USD to maintain it's bullishness for long as the ECB rate hike is around the corner and everone's anticipating 50 bps hike, a 25 bps hike would need a great speech from Trichet to signal that 'vigilance' will be needed in the upcoming months. That would be great for the Euro as well. A hike of 25 bps without these statement will spell doom for the euro which will lead to aggresive drop in the EUR/USD despite the hike in interest rates.

I've put purchased 2 long USD/CHF trades at 1.2100 and 1.2150 as I do not want to miss any leg up for USD if it decides to be extremely bullish. I'm looking to purchase EUR/USD @ 1.2820 level. I'm still considering deeply on whether I should be making a new gold trade...

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Closed/Completed Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2800 , Stop loss @ 1.2900 ( +100 pips )

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2860, Closed @ 1.2915 ( +55 pips )

Long XAU/USD @ 648.80, Stop loss @ 630 ( -1880 pips )

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Existing Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2960

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2100

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2150

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2280

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.7000

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.5800

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.0500

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Trades I'm Waiting For
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2820

Hopefully the Eurozone retail PMI and retail zales with German Factory orders would spur the interest back into the ECB rate hike instead of the Fed's interest issue. It's still weeks to go...