Friday, May 19, 2006

+100 pips: Hawkish Comments from Fed Officials Bulls USD

The day 'started' during the Asian Session closing where Friday sell-offs with hawkish comments from the Fed Officials has caused the USD to bull from a low of 1.2075 to 1.2140 in an hourly candle. This bulls rush is followed by London opening session where london traders took over the bull and continue to push it even further, making news highs at 1.2220. I'm more than happy to take this opportunity to cover my negative trades on the USD/CHF and if this USD bull ends, I will trade aggresively & heavily on EUR/USD my bias for the year remains EUR/USD.

The dollar was sharply higher, reaching 8-day highs against the euro and 11-day highs against the yen on growing expectations that inflation concerns may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise US interest rates again in June. There are several factors contributing to the USD bull

1. The stronger-than-expected CPI reported this week has pressured the Fed to continue raising interest rates of another 25bps to 5.25%.

2. Comments from Bank of Japan governor Toshihiko Fukui were viewed as less hawkish than expected.

3. I think inflation is well contained and will be and inflationary expectations are well contained,' said U.S. Tresury Secretary John Snow.

These factors has contibuted to the USD bull by making traders believe that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates of another 25bps to 5.25% to curb inflation factors. We will most probably see the greenback continue to bull next week until the end of the month. The positive sentiment of the greenback is very unlikely to last long.

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Completed/Closed Trades
===================

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2140, TP @ 1.2190 ( +50 pips )

Long USD/CHf @ 1.2190, TP @ 1.2240 ( +50 pips )

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Existing Trades
===========

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2960, TP @ 1.3010

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2910, TP @ 1.2960

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2860, TP @ 1.2910

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2085 ( Position Trade )

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2100 ( Position Trade )

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2240, TP @ 1.2290

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2280, TP @ 1.2330

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380, TP @ 1.2430

Long XAU/USD @ 665.7

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.05

I'm still looking forward to cover my negative trades at USD/CHF before USD bulls sentiments reverses to Sell-USD Sentiment. I'm starting to make trades in Gold or also known as XAU/USD. With the USD gaining ground against major crosses today including commidities such as gold and silver, I'm expecting USD to continue to bull further next week. In order to cover my expensive negatives in gold, I will trade more aggresively in USD/CHF in order to contain my losses within my margin before I have a margin call. It's very risky but I'm very certain that the gold will continue to recover from this drop.

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