Wednesday, June 14, 2006

+63 pips: CPI reported great for inflation... but is it still good for the greenback?

Main highlight for the day would be the CPI numbers. Everyone's expecting high consumer price index (CPI) because with PPI up for May, there's NO way it's coming out lower than expected. Leaving options open for only matched consensus or HIGHER than consensus. But somehow to my surprise... the market finally see something that was 'right' and they're suppose to notice it last month... not this month. The attention finally went to the slower growth in the US if interest rates keep on rising. CPI reported matched consensus while core-CPI was a little higher than consensus... the immediate reaction was dollar bullish, bringing USD/CHF up to 1.2380 while EUR/USD dropped to 1.2530 low where it was the major support line where the upward trend for EUR/USD initially started until it reaches 1.2979. It was rumored that large Asian Central Banks are buying at 1.2530 to support the EUR/USD, bringing the pair immediately 100 pips upwards and sustaining the move. That is one strong move...

For my trades, I should have taken my profits when the price reaches 1.2400 yesterday... Instintively I wanted to take profit on these trades, but the devil's greed seems to get over me... I did not take profit and decided I will not settle for anything less than 1.2430. Now I have 3 neg USD/CHF to handle as the consequences... While my friend has been wiped out because of the gold trades that cost him $911, bringing him back to stone age where he initially started. After a whole day of discussions of a new and better trading system, we've finally got one still put it in tests. However, backtest on the system looks good for now. I took a dip in EUR/USD at 1.2550 which is a support for the pair.

====================
Closed/Completed Trades
====================

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2220, Closed @ 1.2270

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2270, Closed @ 1.2283

=============
Existing Trades
=============

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2550

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2820

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2960

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2320

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2370

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.7000

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.5800

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.0500

I'm a little disappointed with my profits today as I could have easily made 4 times more the profits yesterday. I guess it's a turn around for the current sentiment... seeking more opportunity to gain back what I've lost...

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home