Monday, June 12, 2006

Low Fundamental Day continue to push USD higher.

Starting of the week is always no fun game... With very little to expect but so much to hope. As usual, the Tokyo session is sleepy for EUR/USD and USD/CHF but London session starts with gold dropping $602.80 then gains back while EUR/USD and USD/CHF is still trading in range but bigger range bounds. Approaching New York open, USD starts it's hike upwards making new highs from Friday. At the same time, gold came back up to $610 and I would say miracle as you don't get to see USD and Gold gaining at the same time. It usually goes in the opposite direction of one another.

I'll be expecting another 150 pips drop for EUR/USD and vice versa for USD/CHF. Expecting EUR/USD to reach 1.2500 and USD/CHF to reach a high of 1.2500. I will take profit for my current 3 USD/CHF trades at 1.2430 with a handsome profit to completely bring me back to an account balance without any negativity that was caused by gold. This is probably the wave down for EUR/USD and same for USD/CHF except in the opposite direction. I will start getting back in EUR/USD @ 1.2500 and would start my EUR/USD without any negative on USD/CHF hopefully.

Fundamentally, we'll mostly be expecting bearish USD data as slower economic growth has taken place in the US economy due to the interest rate hike for the past 16 months. If an interest rate hike took place this month, you can't expect to see results next month. It usually takes 6 to 12 months to actually see results from the hikes, this means that the following months to come, we can expect very very bearish USD numbers. Since the current market sentiment would still be USD bullish, one way to fade the sentiment for good is low CPI numbers, inflation numbers for the month of May. That is IF Ben Bernanke doesn't pull another crazy stance in front of the mic and starts to be unreasonable hawkish again. If he does that despite the low numbers, he will be punished like what the public did it to Trichet months ago before Euro starts to rally hitting a near to 1.30. Whatever the Fed wants, the public will be doing the opposite.

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Existing Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2820

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2960

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2220

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2270

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2320

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2370

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.7000

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.5800

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.0500

I'm testing out some new strategy to improve my trading signals and will be doing something major soon, cooperation with a friend, Greg. I'll always be seeking chances and any opportunity to increase my leverage and my skills in trading currency. I'll be looking ahead to trade more currencies in future. Not gonna let go of any chances to improve my life and and for all... Life is like trading in the forex exchange, you got the timing right and your trade will be sailing high with profit, get in the wrong price and timing, you'll have a terrible time coping with your negatives. Same thing that goes with life...

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