Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Battle Results : USD Bulls, Euro down

This is what I've been expecting after 2 days of tight range bound trading. As usual, Asian Session is pretty quiet and calm while market starts to heat up during the London Session where the Eurozone Data and GBP data is released. Mixed data were seen throughout the whole session of Eurozone and British Pound data. French data were not seen reported today leave me clueless for French Non-Farm Payroll. Meanwhile for GBP, the Bank of England minutes showed a 6-2 vote of leaving the rates unchanged for next month. With a 2 vote on hand to actually agree to hike raise, this push the dollar lower making GBP and EUR higher than in the hour. Plus Iran presiden Mahmoud Ahmednijad rejected the UN proposal to suspend the uranium enrichment programme. This makes the political instability that traders will feel safer investing in gold instead of holding the dollar. This results to the the gold reaching to a high $ 716.50 per ounce earlier afternoon. The Eurozone CPI were reported positive for the Euro currency with core CPI, CPI MoM slightly higher than expected and CPI YoY matching consensus of 2.4%. This has caused EUR/USD to gain grounds, breaking the channel upwards, penetrating 1.2900 showing all EUR/USD positive sign. But traders throughout the whole remains sidetracked leaving the first half of the battle EUR/USD trading at higher price. These traders know that the real battle would be the second half, the New York Session.

The New York Session came, it starts the fight, it kills. Leaving many Euro bull traders lying dead on the floor. The CPI reported were all reported higher-than-expected. The market was practically dumbfounded after the report where traders are still analysing to go BULL USD or BULL EUR. Due to the past few weeks of EUR BULL frenzy, market has been denying good USD data and persuing higher EUR. After 5 minutes, the slaughter begun, with a volatility covering 60 pips up and down. No day trader could survive that hike and fall in such short time. It initially going upwards, which indicated market favoring Euro bull trying to hit 1.30 for the last time giving way to USD to gain ground. In fact, it was a trap. It made me beleive it was going for 1.30 and I placed a trade at 1.2910. After the trade was taken, I realised I was caught in the bear trap. I quickly balance my expected 2 negative trades for EUR/USD with USD/CHF with initial position trade at 1.2085, followed by 1.2100. I will continue my 50-pips series trade from 1.2140 to start taking profit.

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Existing Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2910

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2960

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2085 ( Position Trade )

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2100 ( Position Trade )

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2140, TP @ 1.2190

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2190, TP @ 1.2240

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2280, TP @ 1.2330

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380, TP @ 1.2430

I'm practically waiting for my 50-pips series trade to open and complete one by one. Sweeping a whole load of pips for me. I'm totally out balanced and all into USD now. This trend is expected to last 1 week or the most it could last for the entire month,

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