Wednesday, July 26, 2006

Euro awaits Beige Book from Ben Bernanke.

The IFO survey satisfied neither bulls nor bears in early European trade today as the report printed below the consensus estimate of 106.0 but above the whisper number of 103 registering a reading of 105.6 The latest sentiment gauge of the German business community suggested that the Eurozone recovery continues to maintain pace, but the high cost of energy and the prospect of new value added taxes in the region’s largest economy due to take effect next year are tempering enthusiasm about future growth. After a sharp decline in last week’s ZEW and a material correction yesterday in Belgium’s business indicator which often acts as an accurate proxy for IFO, the market was primed for a downside surprise. So, the data release was somehow interpreted as Euro positive. As the market not showing much reaction to the data, we all know that the whole world is waiting for the Beige Book release in the afternoon, US Time.

I took a new trade again today although I thought I could finally make myself rest for a few days, but proved that I couldn't. I'm too much a forex-holic. New term I would call myself and million other traders that couldn't get their eyes off the world politics and the hourly graphs. I took a trade at 1.2580 and the whole afternoon it's going nowhere. I'm expecting the Beige Book to contain mixed message stating that the world's largest economy is undergoing a transition phase to a slower economy growth. Which then, will be interpreted as a negative dollar as traders will dump the dollar. For the interest rate issue, I'm not too much concerned about it as even the August hike took place at 5.50% it will be short term before a interest rate deductions. So I'm seeing overall negative in dollar. I'll update about the Beige Book on tomorrow's update.

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Existing Trade
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2580

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