Monday, August 07, 2006

USD gains vs. Euro A Day Before Rate Decision.

Euro failed to sustain the price of 1.2890 range when most traders took profit from the lower than expected non-farm payroll report. Most risk-averse traders are now sidelined from the trades waiting the confirmation from the Fed that the pause will be for good until the end of the year. Then USD would have no more reason to rally. But from what I'm expecting, Ben Bernanke wouldn't give a clear picture of the pause rather on data dependant on future rate hikes or rate cuts. But if a pause took place tomorrow, and uncertainty is in the picture, I would be on USD bearish.

My trades from Friday was triggered a stop-loss of a 50 pips profit lock today. I'm looking forward to go long on EUR/USD at 1.2820 trades and I'm still targetting 1.30 as my primary target. GBP/USD and XAU/USD was surprisingly standing strong against the dollar despite Euro had a roller coaster today. If the Fed is dovish, we could expect GBP/USD and XAU/USD to have the best currency performance. I am expecting tomorrow would be in tight range between Asian and early London session and volitility of price movements could start in early NY sessions, probably as early as 6 a.m. I'm hoping for the best to happen. Happy Trading!

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