Friday, February 02, 2007

Oh Honey.... Oh Silver, Silver, Silver...

The U.S. economy is moving in the way just Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke wanted. Through the past few meetings including the FOMC rate decision date, Bernanke is currently happy with the growing economy with moderate inflation numbers but the jobs report refuse to fall. Bernanke will sure be the happiest person today as employers in the U.S. added fewer workers than forecast last month and the jobless rate rose, evidence of an economy growing at the moderate pace predicted by the Federal Reserve.

The 111,000 increase followed a 206,000 rise in December that was larger than previously estimated, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6 percent, the first increase in three months, while gains in pay slowed. Meanwhile, factory orders placed with U.S. factories rose more than forecast in December on higher demand for business equipment, motor vehicles and aircraft, a sign manufacturing may weather its current slump.

The 2.4 percent increase followed a revised 1.2 percent increase in November that was more than previously reported, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Excluding transportation equipment such as Boeing Co. jets, bookings rose 2.2 percent after falling 0.4 percent.

Confidence among U.S. consumers rose to the highest in two years last month as gasoline prices eased and the job market expanded.

The Reuters/University of Michigan's final index of sentiment increased to 96.9 in January from 91.7 in December. The figure compares with a preliminary reading of 98 released on Jan. 19.

The supporting news of the world's largest economy has now seen the bright light at the end of the tunnel. A number of lower inflation has made commodities such as gold and silver lose its appeal as a hedge against inflation. Therefore a huge red candle is seen for gold and silver market, the one I waited for 2 days ago.

I'm glad it happened.

Throughout the past few sessions, commodities has shown significant strength of bullish and yesterday's commodity bull market has somehow lost it's strength as the climb in prices was quite vigorous and it hasn't shown any retracement, a sign of healthy growth.

I've previously positioned a limit trade of long 430 units of silver(XAG/USD) @ 13.4130. This trade seemed impossible to reach during the Asian, London and early New York session. The supporting news above has made it possible. Seeing the trade triggered and price continue to fall lower, I've placed another trade. 430 units of silver @ 13.3000.

After this big fall, I hope the price doesn't jump from a cliff that has bottomless landing point. I am expecting consolidation in prices and supported from investors after the fall today. If price continue to fall further I will make another purchase of silver at a new low. If there's a big drop, I'll look forward to buy it again. Commodities rally has just started, and it's nowhere nearing the end yet.

Oil prices will continue to rise as supply and demand imbalances are growing much apart as supplies are slowly depleting and demands are rising everyday. No new rigs have been found recently and even it's been found lately, the process of extracting the oil and bringing it to market will take decades. Meanwhile, oil supply is depleting. Oil rises... commodity rises.

Happy Trading Everyone!
Best of luck!

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