Looking For Partners To Start A New Investment Blog

I'm looking for currency and commodity analysts and strategist to share a blog to publish fundamentals and technical analysis with investment strategies. This is a preliminary idea of a new blog. Doesn't matter you're male or female, as long as you feel you're good enough for the world to know who you are...

Email me at gohrayson@yahoo.com

Please specify what are you specialization, your relevant experience and preferably with age.
Just provide me whatsoever information for me to know you better.

Only serious and confident traders and analyst should email me.

Thanks

Disastrous Tuesday.

I'm sad to announce that I've finally had my first bad day since trading. During early New York session today, the silver market was undergoing a very aggressive retracement. My current margin was able to support it to go a little bit lower. But I've decided to give up 50% of my trades which cost me a damn big hole of USD 470 in my wallet. Therefore I'm back to where I started on January. My aim for February remains to 30% monthly profit. I'll try to regain what I've lost today within a week since I thought I lose half a grand in 24 hours I'll use 5 trading days to recoup it. It'll be hard but still possible I hope.

Currently I still have trades at 13.9500, 13.9000 and 13.7850 with 300 units, 600 units & 600 units respectively. Throughout today, I given a thorough thinking about how should I place trades on dip which I can't possibly 100% sure the bottom at all times? Yesterday I've made another discovery of the weekly hourly trend, which gives me a picture of a possibly drop like early today. It seems like another great graph for me to help me making decisions on my trade. I shall switch my strategy to a less aggressive approach after this hole in my pocket during range markets. But during the bullish trend, I will be as aggressive as ever to gain as much as possible before another retracement forms.

Even though, this loss has bring me back to early February, this had been an extremely valuable lesson to me in my trading experience and I definitely paid a hefty price for it.

For others out there, hope you enjoy my experience and all the best

Happy Trading!

Retracement In Progress...

Another day of small corrections in the silver market. I'm still not seeing the major correction that I think it should happen. I'm still learning on how to trade under these market conditions. Very tricky market I would say. Oil prices are dropping as refineries breakdown is under repair and cold weather in the Easter US will soon be over and we'll be expecting slowdown in heating oil consumption. Top of that, OPEC research directors mentioned earlier today that the supply and demand imbalances gap is drawing closer to each other. I assumed that this is only possibly in the short term but in the long term, the gap will continue to widen. I've tried online searching for the latest new oil discoveries that could possibly compensate the oil demand but couldn't find any in these recent years. At least, no drilling is done yet.

Some says commodity bubble will definitely burst. But I say it will not happen in years to come. Not at least until 2015. I have not made any trades today but judging from the intra day chart, I've placed several trades that I find it interesting if the silver market retrace to an attractive level.

I've placed 600 units each from 13.3000 until 13.7000.

Comments?

Happy Trading!

New Profit Record! Thanks To Silver Retracement!

I've made a significant profit in Silver again today as yesterday's retracement has enabled me to practice my " Buy low Sell high" technique. This retracement with my trades along with the drop has enabled me to test my techniques IF the market goes against me. I couldn't say it's successful because I was running low on funds yesterday. I have deposit another USD 1020 to my trading account ( USD 20 was an excess when I wire transfer my funds to make sure I have at least USD 1000 back in the account).

In total I've made USD 201 from 5 trades with accumulated 1500 units of silver. Below are my trades;

200 units @ 13.8000
300 units @ 13.8500
500 units @ 13.7280
200 units @ 13.6550
110 units @ 13.6030 ( I almost ran out of margin, this is the maximum I could take)
190 units @ 13.7750 (This is taken during the London bull market.)

All of above trades are closed at 13.8850. I've changed my monthly target from 20% to 30% starting from February. Currently, I'm almost reaching 50% for the month of February. An amazing results I would say. I'm looking to make another USD 270 in coming weeks before 1st of March. The retracement happen at the right time for everyone but unfortunately I have insufficient funds yesterday. Too bad for this time, now the money is back and I'm definitely back for more.

For my future trades, I see that the bullish trend is still intact and I would probably take a trade at 13.9000 where the current bottom of the bullish trend up-to-date. Hoping for a better tomorrow

Happy Trading

Great day, great profit. New Record!!

My money is coming from silver, Thanks alot silver . I'm almost reaching my 20% goal for month of February as the trades on a great Monday brings me 15.3% profit. This 15.3% is not calculated from my starting capital of USD 1000, it's calculated from the closing account for the month of January which totalled USD 1176 (rounded down) estimated around 17.6% for month of Jan. Therefore 15.3% means USD 180 from USD 1176 (rounded down minus daily interest rates).

Let's recap on what I've done.

Both of this trades has been held over the weekend, paying daily interest rates of USD 1.8 each for 2 days. Totaled USD 7.60. It's worth it though~

430 units of silver @ 13.3000
430 units of silver @ 13.4230

This trade is taken today during some minor retracement when I'm expecting the bullish moment is coming...

430 units of silver @ 13.3500

As far as this record progressed, I'm making profit almost everyday. I'm looking forward continue this way of trading until I make some serious money out of it.

For the next trade, I'm expecting a consolidation price around 13.5000 and before another bullish session, I'm looking to take another trade at 12.4000.

I like to keep my trading plan easy, simple and straight to the point and obviously this trading plan I designed is very suitable for me.

The purpose of this blog is for me to expose my experience and make friends with people from all over the world. If some of you don't mind, drop me an email~ gohrayson@yahoo.com

Happy trading!

Oh Honey.... Oh Silver, Silver, Silver...

The U.S. economy is moving in the way just Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke wanted. Through the past few meetings including the FOMC rate decision date, Bernanke is currently happy with the growing economy with moderate inflation numbers but the jobs report refuse to fall. Bernanke will sure be the happiest person today as employers in the U.S. added fewer workers than forecast last month and the jobless rate rose, evidence of an economy growing at the moderate pace predicted by the Federal Reserve.

The 111,000 increase followed a 206,000 rise in December that was larger than previously estimated, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6 percent, the first increase in three months, while gains in pay slowed. Meanwhile, factory orders placed with U.S. factories rose more than forecast in December on higher demand for business equipment, motor vehicles and aircraft, a sign manufacturing may weather its current slump.

The 2.4 percent increase followed a revised 1.2 percent increase in November that was more than previously reported, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Excluding transportation equipment such as Boeing Co. jets, bookings rose 2.2 percent after falling 0.4 percent.

Confidence among U.S. consumers rose to the highest in two years last month as gasoline prices eased and the job market expanded.

The Reuters/University of Michigan's final index of sentiment increased to 96.9 in January from 91.7 in December. The figure compares with a preliminary reading of 98 released on Jan. 19.

The supporting news of the world's largest economy has now seen the bright light at the end of the tunnel. A number of lower inflation has made commodities such as gold and silver lose its appeal as a hedge against inflation. Therefore a huge red candle is seen for gold and silver market, the one I waited for 2 days ago.

I'm glad it happened.

Throughout the past few sessions, commodities has shown significant strength of bullish and yesterday's commodity bull market has somehow lost it's strength as the climb in prices was quite vigorous and it hasn't shown any retracement, a sign of healthy growth.

I've previously positioned a limit trade of long 430 units of silver(XAG/USD) @ 13.4130. This trade seemed impossible to reach during the Asian, London and early New York session. The supporting news above has made it possible. Seeing the trade triggered and price continue to fall lower, I've placed another trade. 430 units of silver @ 13.3000.

After this big fall, I hope the price doesn't jump from a cliff that has bottomless landing point. I am expecting consolidation in prices and supported from investors after the fall today. If price continue to fall further I will make another purchase of silver at a new low. If there's a big drop, I'll look forward to buy it again. Commodities rally has just started, and it's nowhere nearing the end yet.

Oil prices will continue to rise as supply and demand imbalances are growing much apart as supplies are slowly depleting and demands are rising everyday. No new rigs have been found recently and even it's been found lately, the process of extracting the oil and bringing it to market will take decades. Meanwhile, oil supply is depleting. Oil rises... commodity rises.

Happy Trading Everyone!
Best of luck!

Boring.... Boring... Trading day.

After exciting moments I had yesterday, another hopeful day comes today as I anticipate more movements from the market. In fact, it was pretty boring for the whole session. I didn't actually made any profit today even I placed 2 trades... a few minutes before the last rally begins. I purchased 430 units of silver @ 13.6650 and 13.7900 respectively. The price fluctuates and increase and I finally closing my positions with only USD 2 profit. lolz. Count it as lucky as soon after I close my positions, it feel immediately a big red line. So, now i'm out of trades again and will place new trades based on retracement or another consolidation. Hoping for a better tomorrow

happy trading

Silver STRIKE 3!!! Another Day With Great Profit.

As I've forgot to mentioned yesterday, I've took profit on all of my trades... all except 1. 400 units of silver @ 13.4000. I've saw silver's performance yesterday and it's simply amazing. This morning when I woke and start looking at the charts again, seeking an opportunity to make another trade, and of course... looking at the over-all short term trend at the 1-hour chart. Immediately I saw consolidation of silver prices and I planned for my next move. I drew the uptrend channel line for silver in the 1-hour chart and found the potential price it might reach just before London or New York open. The channel I drew shows a potential drop for the day reaching 1.2600. I decided to place a safe trade at 1.2750.

Within a few minutes after I placed the limit trade and it was 30 minutes before London open, it went exactly what I had in mind earlier. The trades were triggered and it showed amazing strength of support, unlike of what I've seen in the normal trading days. I was determined that today will be different.

I was right again.

After the volatility session on higher than expected inflation number of Annualized quarterly US GDP reaching 3.5%... higher than what the market has in mind. Inflation will trigger hedging in commodities. Another supporting reason on today's bull market. It went for a long-green candle bringing me another profit of USD 83 (rounded down).

So, I therefore conclude my trading profits for month of January ends at 17.7% profit. Starting on January 24 with USD 1000 + 177.49 (minus daily interest rates).

I'm expecting silver price to have a small retracement and consolidation around 13.4000 level. which then I will again make another entry. My strategy has always been the same, always buying at the new lows or a.k.a. buying a dip. I've removed my stop-loss strategy because whenever silver has reached a considerably 'cheap' price... there's always investors/traders seeking to support it. A commodity always means a value for someone...

There's few things that I would need to improve myself... First, choosing a good entry point. In my past few trades, I've done some mistakes in entry, ending up in huge drawdowns, the highest I had so far is 30% drawdown. It was scary. Believe me. Perhaps it was luck and it went back up.

Second was my take profit exit, I seem to always take profit a little bit earlier than I should. If I had take profit at the accurate time... I am 100% sure that I'll be making more than 20% profit for this month, which ended up only 17.7% profit. These are the two things I need to seriously work on it.

Anyway, for those who wish to provide me some advice or suggestions please do so because I might need some help afterall. I've sign-up for the 7th Annual Forex Forum which will be held in London somewhere around May. Anyone interested in going as well? Please do email me.
gohrayson@yahoo.com. Hope to hear from you guys soon.

P.S. I've been getting alot of visitors but none has actually emailed me. Is it me or .... ?

Silver Does It Again!

It starts looking like another tough day, ends up to be a happy ending afterall. My persistent in silver has brought me profit again, as I've been doing more researches yesterday and I managed to convince myself that today isn't a day for commodities to crash. An article from Kitco.com suggests that when Spring(March) starts, gold and silver will on the bull rush again, gold potentially reaching USD 730/ounce and breaking it and silver potentially reaching USD 19.20. All of this price movements is just the warm up of the actual thing that is yet to come. Corrections is a must in commodities market as it's no heaven trade and goes up the time, if it goes up all the time, every single trader in the world would dump all their money in commodities. Too bad this doesn't happen. Anyway, let me re-list all my trades

400 units of silver @ 13.4000
360 units of silver @ 13.2800
240 units of silver @ 13.2750
320 units of silver @ 13.2000
280 units of silver @ 13.1380

After I completed writing my blog yesterday, I continue to observe for any sign of recovery in the market. No sign of recovery but it somehow managed to find a support at 13.2000 area, that's when I made another purchase of 320 units of silver. The whole night (time in Malaysia GMT+8), it just maintained itself at 13.2000 range. A new day with hoping for a better tomorrow.

During Asian session of a new day, silver shows no sign of strengthening or positive outlook, instead it shows consolidation, a sign of make-or-break. Late Asian session at estimated 2 am EST, silver dropped to a significant lower price, by then I'm already having a drawdown at more than 25% of my initial amount. As I'm still feeling a comeback, I make another purchase, 280 units of silver @ 13.1380.

My view in the market proves on the right move after I made 13.1380 and as soon as it reaches a new opening hour, I knew silver reached the low where it'll attract traders to purchase it. Once the London market opens, silver market shows improvement and potential break and looks very promising for a profit.

In the matter of fact, it did. I managed to take profit (earlier than what I had in mind due to much persuasion from my partner) around 1.3000. This early profit has earned me 9.1% of profit which is around USD 91. I've set an aim to earn 20% before the end of January and tomorrow is the last day... I doubt myself the rally of the market these days will bring me another 11.9% within 24 hours itself. However, this disappoints me.

I've done some research myself on what is silver being used for and the supply and demand. Questions popped in mind, " Does it matter?" The answer is "YES". Most market pushers for commodity market is the supply and demand. Below is the list of the uses and the supply demand data that I've managed to find through a free source in the internet. I'm planning to get the latest 2007 CRB Commodity Yearbook which contains essential information of every commodities trader would need.

Uses

Demand for silver is built on three main pillars; industrial and decorative uses, photography and jewelry & silverware. Together, these three categories represent more than 95 percent of annual silver consumption. In 2005, 409.3 million ounces of silver were used for industrial applications, while over 164.8 million ounces of silver were committed to the photographic sector, and 249.6 million ounces were consumed in the jewelry and silverware markets. Why is this indispensable metal in such demand? The reasons are simple. Silver has a number of unique properties including its strength, malleability and ductility, its electrical and thermal conductivity, its sensitivity to and high reflectance of light and the ability to endure extreme temperature ranges. Silver’s unique properties restrict its substitution in most applications.

It's been used for Batteries, Bearings, Brazing and Soldering, Catalysts, Coins, Electrical, Electronics, Electroplating, Photography, Medical Applications, Jewelry and Silverware, Mirrors and Coatings, Solar Energy, Water Purification. So tell me, how much does silver worth to you?

Happy Trading Everyone! Have a nice day!

1000 + 21.88 - Silver(XAG/USD) brings in the money.

My first day of trading has been quite an adventure for me. I won't say I'm happy over my 2% profit but I'm not disappointed either. I'm just not feeling satisfied as I should have made at least a 10% profit for the day... AND I DID! Well, ALMOST. If I were wise enough to take profit at the right time. *sigh*

Fundamental Analysis

We've a couple of news release worth paying attention today which is German IFO and US Existing Home Sales or a.k.a. Owned Home Sales. German IFO Business Confidence index, derived from a monthly survey of 7,000 executives dropped from a 5-year high to 107.5 from a consensus of 109.0, mainly led my pessimistic retailers. This is mainly due to the fore-coming interest rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the VAT that was introduced 1st Jan 2007.

"The fundamental weakness in the economy emanates from the consumer" said Julian Callow, chief European economist at Barclays Capital in London. The retail sector is stagnating in Germany. The impending ECB rate increase is looking premature without evidence of an improvement in private demand. - Bloomberg

I personally do not expect ECB to raise interest rates in February as the current economy in the Euro-zone is not as in much desired state.

US Existing Home sales in December dropped for the first time in 3 months capping the largest annual drop since 1989. Many economists and analyst felt this slide is a sign of bottoming in the housing industry. I would say it's gonna hurt more than this. Even throughout for the past few months I didn't follow the releases of such data, I still feel that US economy will not recover as easily from the damage it's been suffering for years. Even a drop in interest rates has been ruled out at this present moment, but I'm expecting in months to come, US Federal Reserve will at least reduce 25 bps from it's interest rates system. Reasons are simple, if there's no way to outrun the tiger, take the next best way out. Minimizing the damage that couldn't be possibly avoided and hope for a chance of survival. I'd personally won't think so much for the US economy afterall, it's been in deficit for years. It's gonna blow up some day... the thing is when?

The thing that I'm worrying the most is the China over-heating economy. With the latest China's economy grew 10.4 percent in the fourth quarter and inflation accelerated, prompting speculation the central bank will raise interest rates for the first time since August. It could lead to a meltdown and it's gonna be another repeat for another economic crisis. As long as I remembered, world economic crisis happened on 1987, and 1997, will 2007 suffer the same fate? I certainly hope not.

Consumer prices climbed 2.8 percent in December, the most in nearly two years. The world's fourth-largest economy expanded by 10.7 percent in 2006, the fastest in 11 years.

Accelerating inflation may force China to raise rates or take other measures to slow lending growth that is fueled by a record trade surplus. Surging exports swelled the country's foreign reserves to more than $1 trillion and prompted the U.S. and Europe to call for China's currency to strengthen.

Even with the central bank raised rates twice last year and on Jan. 5, inflation in the China economy is growing hotter than ever supported mainly by industries processing raw materials into goods for export.

However, this is where the interesting part comes in. According to Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of the National People's Congress, said today at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, China will import more from overseas,'mainly consumer goods and commodities. This is to control and adjust the super strong yuan from exploding and creating a narrower trade surplus and curb growth in its ballooning foreign exchange reserves.

In pure economic theory, the yuan should be stronger, but we don't live in a purely theoretical world,'' William McDonough, vice chairman of Merrill Lynch & Co. and former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. A freely traded yuan ``would be a brutal hit to a financial system that isn't ready for it.'"

So, this again proves that commodity market will be on the bull run for a very LOOONG time. I'm putting a bet in the commodity market. Are you?

Story Telling Session

The Asian Market today is pretty peaceful today, Gold traded in somehow like in a zig-zag manner between prices of USD 646 till 648 on average. I would say not much of movements but it would be great scalping the market, which I did not do so because I'm not a good scalper. Silver traded even in a tighter range of 500 pips. It's totally IMPOSSIBLE to scalp the silver market due to the buy-sell pip difference (400 pips during Asian Session). So, it was practically only viewing and no trading. The actions starts pouring in when it's 03:00 EST or 08:00 GMT where London session is starting and the game begins.

As I've mentioned yesterday that I've positioned a trade in Silver or XAG/USD at 13.3000, after analyzing the market in Asia of the price movements and news, I've decided to make an early entry. I modified my trade from 13.3000 to 13.2300. The trade was triggered a couple of hours before London open and was well supported within that price level. 30 minutes before the London opening, the first rally of the day start and I was in it! I ride the first wave up to 13.3380. I moved my stop loss from 13.2000 to 12.2800, securing my 500 pips of profit. Then making the next move of riding a wave is placing another trade at 13.43000. It never made it and went back down triggering my stop loss. This is where the 21.88 profit comes from.

After the trade is closed, I was observing the market closely looking for another opportunity entry. I was looking for a dip buying but the strength in silver was so amazing that I didn't managed to get a price at 13.3000, and before I knew it, it's back on 13.3450. Judging of the momentum and the swift recovery, I place a trade at 1.35000, and it was triggered the next minute. It went up without showing any sign of exhaustion even there's a consolidation period just right before New York market opens at price estimate 13.4000. I held my 13.3500 trade until 13.5500 where it triggered another trade and it went straight down. I moved my stop loss to break even at 13.4500. Which in the end, I end up nothing... This is where I've learnt another lesson in my trading experience. Anyway, I'm looking forward to bring in more profit and targeting a 20% profit by the end of this month. This is my near term goal and I'm looking forward to it. Sounds tough since I only have a couple of days left before it's February.

So guys and girls, HAPPY TRADING and may you gain something from the experience I had today.

Apology note*
I personally thinks that my post today is not really as professional as it should be. I feel that I could possibly do better as I'm getting back to blogging my trades. And currently I've no next trade I'm planning to enter. So I can't update my next trade moves tonight. Sorry to everyone. =(

USD 1000 - I'm BACK!!!

Hi everyone. I'm thrilled to be back to live trading after months of practices using demo. During these months, I have changed my lifestyle and everything... Shall not repeat on that issue anymore. But this time, I'm definitely back for more. I've developed strategies to trade gold and silver. As I'm still using Oanda Platform, it allows me only 2 commodity choices. From today onwards, I would update on my account status and my triggered trades, and of course with my profit and loss system as usual.

I don't expect to be 100% right all the time and I'll try my best not to fall. I've learnt the tough way on my mistakes and shall not repeat the same mistakes once again. My next trade I'm looking at is Silver at price 13.3000, targeting to take profit at 14.0 as I strongly believe that commodities market will soon back on track after much of the 'correction' period. I will not trade Gold at the moment because I'm only leveraged at 20:1 and trading only 10% of my cash. This has not allowed me to trade gold at moment, so I'm going for Gold in Silver.

U.S. economy seemed to 'recover' at the present moment after surge in PPI, CPI and any possible inflationary data that is supporting the dollar. But from my perspective, it will not last long due to the heavy debt of the world's largest economy and Foreign Investment (TIC) will not be strong every single month to support the dollar. As compared of previous year on Jan 24, Euro/USD prices has grown significantly from 1.2267(2006) and 1.2954(2007). This is a changes of estimated over 600 pips within a year and the long term chart is on the bullish trend.

For commodities rally, it started back on 1999 as predicted by Commodities Expert and Co-founder of Quantum Funds, Jim Rogers, from USD 3 per barrel of crude of to USD 55 today, not to mention other commodities such as silver, gold, grain, orange juice (was USD 3 back then... YES same price with oil. Does your car run on orange juice?) and etc. From what I'm seeing, I'm expecting commodities to continue it's rally for AT LEAST another 7 long years. Crude might be USD 150 per barrel then and gold would be USD 1000 per ounce. As from the rising demand from building giant countries such as China. Commodities prices will not settle down or crash in these coming years. Not until China is fully developed like United States (except the bad debt).

So, my long terms perspective is commodities all the way and trading less currencies unless I see and catch the golden opportunity. Then I will consider taking a ride with currencies. Other than that, I'll not think about it.

BEST OF TRADING MY FELLOW FOREX MATES!

I'm still looking for a person who can share his/her experiences with me in trading. 2 brains are better than 1 ain't it? So please do contact me.

I can be contact via:
MSN:gohrayson@hotmail.com
Yahoo Messenger: gohrayson@yahoo.com
Skype: gohrayson@yahoo.com

So, send me an email or whatsoever! I don't mind sharing ideas and earning money together afterall, it's a USD 2.5 trillion dollars market. LOLZ. Have a great day!