+70 pips : Trading starts in Oanda $ 148.86 & FXCM account is still maintained...

With the market moving strong against USD today, today is a great day for trading and profit taking. I've decided to start my trading in Oanda earlier, positioning myself to the profit direction.

EUR/USD market were seen on sideway trading during early Asian session and prices only seen moving in a bigger range from 2.00 am EST. All major currencies traded higher against USD after SNB Chairman Roth's comments on the influence of the weaker CHF on interest rate policy have lit another green light for those looking to sell USD/CHF rather than buy EUR/USD as the preferred overall short USD play. USD/CHF shorts are less likely to run into some of the more 'active reserve management' that seems to occur on EUR/USD where sovereigns do get a mention on both sides. Maybe a big clue was that the USD/CHF sellers yesterday did appear to include all a lot of Swiss names!

Trade Details

Account: Oanda Brokerage


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Completed/Closed Trades
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Trade: Long EUR/USD @ 1.2560

Target: 1.2610

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Existing Trades:
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Trade: Long EUR/USD @ 1.2610

Target: 1.2650

Comments: A profitable, +50 pips first day with Oanda Brokerage with implied new system but it's a system without stops. I've already implied the hedging system into my account in case 1 trade turns negative.


Account: FXCM Brokerage


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Completed/Closed Trades:
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Trade: Long EUR/USD @ 1.2600

Target: 1.2620

Comments: Target reached and consolidates losses occured on Tuesday 25 April 2006. Adding to the account is a +20 pips profit. Now with a margin back to $ 100 dollars, trading will be much easier.

It's still expected that the EUR/USD will continue it's rally to a high of 1.2720 or probably higher.



The image above shows the move of the moving average graph of the EUR/USD currency with USD/CHF. Look at what the similariy has occured on Friday.

So, what do you think of the Monday market?

Dovish Bernanke...

For 2 days, I've stopped trading and observe the market with much anticipation. I was prepared to trade during the beige book report on yesterday but the data came out mixed and Euro continued the rally till yesterday closing at 1.2430-40 range. Today it was expected that comments from Mr. Bernanke would determine the price of the day... and it turned out the Fed decided to pause the rate hike at the moment even with rising inflation. I took a trade immediately after the comment by Bernanke defined as 'dovish' comments.

Trades Completed:

Trade: Long 10 lots of EUR/USD @ 1.2456

Stop: No stops input due to what's left over in my portfolio

Target: 1.2485

Result: Trade closed on 27 April 2006, stopped out of the 10 lots @ 1.2482 ( +26 pips )

Comments: As soon as the comments were out, I've placed trade buying euro dollar. Managed to gain a little from what I've lost 3 days ago. I would call this a nice trade but I took profit short because my margin is very limited to play around. Profit is better than loss.I'm considering a trade at 1.2540, 5 pips above the September 7 Daily High. Another large resistance is seen now at 1.2550 with rumours of European Central Bank On offer at 1.2550. It's speculated that 1.2600 will be the target before the New York close.

Oanda Brokerage

I've successfull transfered funds to Oanda Forex Broker with a new balance of 143.66
But won't be trading in the new account until the next Monday. But Oanda account will be my primary account to reach my goal. FXCM will still be used but will not be concentrated as much as Oanda.

Euro staged Tuesday...

As it's expected for today's market, during Asian Session, a minor retracement of EUR/USD happened all the way back to 1.2364 low. Which is still the lowest value of today's market while I'm writing this. After the minor retracement, the Euro bull continued the way up to the top making attempts reaching 1.2400 strong resistance. The retracement were not low enough to attract Euro investors and fearing the highly unbalanced price of Euro, therefore the bull's not stong as uncertainty of the market is still seen during the uptrend.

Trades' placed for the day

Trade 1: Long 10 lots EUR/USD on a small retracement @ 1.2386

Stop: 1.2366

Target: 1.2396

Result: Target reached at 3.44 am EST on Tuesday 25/4/06 ( +10 pip )

Comments: Market were highly unbalanced and were taking a slow pace heading to the 1.2400 goal. The market only gets active and back to favor EUR/USD when the German IFO Business Confidence prior release creating trader's short term interest in the currency boosting it.As the German IFO reported higher-than-expected gain of 105.9 from consensus of 104.7 .

Trade 2: Long 10 lots EUR/USD @ 1.2406

Stop: 1.2386

Target: 1.2416

Result: Target reached at 4.05 am EST on Tuesday 25/4/06 ( +10 pip )

Trade 3: Long 10 lots EUR/USD @ 1.2420

Stop: 1.2390

Target: 1.2430

Result: Target reached at 9.24 am EST on Tuessay 25/4/06 ( +10 pip )

Trade 4: Short 10 lots EUR/USD @ 1.2373

Stop: 1.2395

Target: 1.2363

Results: Position closed at 10.34 am EST on Tuesday 25/4/06 ( -22 pip )

Trade 5: Long 10 lots EUR/USD on an expected comeback @ 1.2415

Stop: 1.2395

Target: 1.2425

Results: Position closed at 11.08 am EST 25/4/06 ( - 20 pips )

Comments on trade 4 & 5: Position closed by stop due to the highly volatile and uncertain market. It was long expected that the Euro will have a major fall and initial signs after the USD Consumer Confidence showed a bear for EUR. For trade 4, the big bear turned out to be a small bear and EUR/USD made an impressive recovery from the 'big bear' and rushed towards 1.24 level again. For trade 5, as I've thought Euro has recovered, I made another order at 1.2415 a level that was well protected before the major fall to secure my position heading towards 1.2425. But it turned back again and hit my stop. At the moment, no clear direction were clearly seen for the pair. I will then switch to buy dips now.

Comments: Market continued to persue higher level reaching top of 1.2416 after the German IFO showed higher-than-expected value. A strong resistance at 1.2416 immediately pushed the pair back to 1.2370 shortly after reaching 1.2416 and somehow stabalized at 1.2390-1.2400 area. New York Session was extremely bullish for as long as 5 minutes at 8.30 am EST pushing EUR/USD to an expected level. It's believed that the German IFO data indirectly influenced these major gain. Within 5 minutes, EUR/USD went up from 1.2398 to a new record high of 1.2433. It retraced slowly back to the 1.2420 area a few pips above the resistance-turned-support for the EUR/USD.

Trades That I'm Waiting For

Trade 1: Long 10 lots EUR/USD on a major retracement @ 1.2190

Stop: 1.2167 ( High-Turned-Resistance level on 12/4/2006

Target: 1.2300

Trade 2: Long 10 lots EUR/USD on a retracement @ 1.2300

Stop: 1.2290

Target: 1.2350 ( +50 pip profit targetted )

A major breakdown of EUR/USD is still expected to happen, but the problem is... when.

Euro zone data release of German CPI at 9.00am EST is reported higher-than-expected data of 0.5 compared to consensus of 0.2. The market showed no reaction to the higher-than-expected data of the German CPI.

USD Consumer confidence is reported higher-than-expected at 109 creating a reversal on EUR/USD. It's about time the pair balances the currency. Expecting it to bear all the way until NY close.

-29 pips of the Unpredictable Monday.

As I've yet to transfer to a new broker, Oanda, recommended by a friend. I've decided to try with my existing funds at FXCM. Throughout the day, I've only placed 1 trade.

Trade: Long 10 lots of EUR/USD @ 1.2406

Stop: 1.2370 ( Low at 21st of April 2006)

Target: 1.2425

Result: Trade closed on 24th of April 2006, stopped out of the 10 lots @ 1.2377 (-29 pips).

Comments: After watching the chart before positioning the limit orders. 2 points were clearly stated. It's either euro will be extremely bullish at the start of the market or it will drop for retracement getting back to the trend seen in daily charts from the beginning of the year. What's deceiving is what looks like a bull for Euro turned out to be a Big Bear... trapping alot of Euro 'hitch-hikers', trying to join the party in Euro. That's where I got trapped.

Thoughout the Asian & European session, EUR/USD did not show any signs of direction it was heading. An extremely narrow range to trade in, but upon reaching the New York session, more actions are seen, it's known that the increase of Euro as I'm writing this now is caused by USD sellers, and NOT Euro buyers. So there were no clear indicators of trading, technically of course. It could be due to:

1. G7 meeting that was held in the weekend which fuels the Asian Currency especially yen to rise.

2. Qatar's central bank that has been buying euros in the market and could keep building its euro holdings until they make up 40 percent of its $4.5-billion reserves.

3. The Euro is a step closer to become an alternative world reserve currency received another vote of confidence this week as more central banks diversify away from dollars.

However with all these information, plus with tomorrow's plenty of Euro-zone economic releases that will eventually push to a higher limit if it favors the currency. Today's report of the French Business Confidence Indicator rose by +2 from a previous of 106 to 108, and German industrial production gained for a third month, showing growth is picking up in the 12-nation euro economy.

An index measuring sentiment among French manufacturers increased to 108 in April, the highest since March 2001, Paris- based statistics office Insee said today. German industrial production rose 1 percent in February after advancing a revised 0.4 percent in January.

A retracement of EUR/USD is highly unlikely for tomorrow as the Euro-zone shows a strong economic growth for the month of April. But, it'll the market's decision

If the market does retrace, then hopefully I'll be in the business

Trade That I'm Waiting For:

Trade: Buy 10 lot of EUR/USD on a retracement @ 1.2345
Stop @ 1.2320 ( Fibo 38.2)
Target: 1.2400

This trade might change according to the market data that comes out to be supportive in favor of Euro if retracement is not seen.

Trade: Buy 10 lot of EUR/USD on a trend rally @ 1.2415
Stop @ 1.2390 ( 19/4/2006 high turned support)
Target : 1.2500

The market today is somehow a 'stage' setup for tomorrow's (Tuesday) 'show'. It'll either be the Bull or the Bear is performing. Pick one...

A New System with an Ultimate Goal... Finally

A few hours before the opening of the Japan market, I've decided to give this blog a second post. After a whole night of reading particularly in technical analysis, money management and risk management. After realising what is needed in trading range in trend market which I've set suitable for myself with proper management, I've developed a system for myself. If this system fails to work as it planned to be for the first month, it's back to the basics of planning and drawing board. However I will still be reading the charts, observing the market while making mental trades, which will be continued to post here, profit or loss.

I've set my goal to make 1 million dollars in 4 years time. Due to my heavy losses in the past weeks, I've decided to go along with the account but with a new system. My current account balance is left $ 99.22, with my initial trading account balance of $ 978.22. Currently I'm at a lost of $ -879.00...

I've set up 3 terms of goals. Here's how it's going to work. With my current balance, I will set a target of increasing my balance by 33.7% per month or 8.43% per week. I will continue this consecutively for 4 month. By the end of the 4th month I should have a rough estimation of $ 477.97. This is my short-term goal.

From the 5th month onwards, I'll decrease the monthly goal profit to 25% per month or 6% per week. On the 8th month, it would be enough to recoup with my loss in of $ 879.00. However I will continue this process until the 16th month that I will eventually withdraw my initial trading balance with a slight profit of $ 1000.00 .
No withdrawals will be made until I make up till the 20 grand mark. After that I will continuously withdraw 1 grand per month until I reach the half a million mark,which I will withdraw out whatever's left on the last 5 digit of the account, as long as it still has 500 grand. This is my mid-term goal.

I will again reduce the profit rate to 10% per month or 2.5% per week. I will stop withdrawing funds from my account until 1 reach my primary goal and also known as my long-term goal: the 1 million dollar mark which again I will reduce my monthly profit to 5% or 1.25% per week.

From then, I shall set up a new set of goals which will roughly set 4 years from now. The time and date specified here is a rough estimation and it might take longer or shorter time to achieve (preferably shorter).

As for my system, I will make use of my 'toolbox' which I will use for what's work for the current market environment. How would I know the market environment? The first thing that I would need to do and crucially important is to know whether the market is trading in a trend or a range. For this I will use ADX, Bollinger bands, risk reversal graphs, RSI, MACD and definately without miss is the Fibonacci Retracement and Extensions. I will then judge the market without emotional detachment. This is the toughest rule to follow and needs tons of discipline, not to be influenced by fear or greed.

Join the market! When you can't beat them, join them! That's what everyone says isn't it?

At present, I would go in a trade during a price retracement during the up-trend or the down-trend. If I missed the retracement for any reasons, then if it's an up-trend, I will put a position order slightly a few pips(not more than 10 pips) above the yesterday's high(daily chart) and if it's a down-trend seen or expected, then I would do exactly the opposite of the up-trend, which is put an order a few pips slightly lower than the previous day low. I would currently use stop-loss order to manage the risks. I would use the two-day low method which is volatility-based stops. The stop will be placed 10 pips below the two-day low if I'm going for long and 10 pips above the two-day high if I'm going for short. I might actually try hedging if I get to learn more about it and understands it better. I will set my risk-reward to a 1:2 ratio to 1:3. I will trade only in a quantity of 10k volume until at least with my account balance of 5 grand. My portfolio risk management and maximum drawdown would be ideally 2% - 5% per trade and strictly not more than that. If it takes me to earn $ 1 per pip at 5 grand level, I would definately do that instead of risking a higher drawdown I might be facing. A trading system is not a 'holy-grail'. It's said that if your trading system works 80% of the time. There's still the 20% that might leave a big hole in your pocket, draining away every hard earn penny with lots of stress.

As this is just roughly my new trading systems, I hope this would work for me and will help me to reach my financial freedom. If you happen to read this blog as an interest, feel free to leave your comments in my blog.

It's the time to look at the charts again...