EUR/USD reaches 1.2957, will it reach 1.30?

Will EUR/USD break 1.30 barrier? It might with the traders still on Euro bull. For the fundamentals today, The German CPI, French CPI in line with expectations. The bulls continue to rush upwards until the US Trade Balance reported much lower-than-expected deficit of -62 bil vs. -67 bil consensus. Technically, all signs show for a reversal, but fundamentally, it's the traders that keep pushing EUR/USD to a higher limit. Overshooting will definately occur on EUR/USD on this what i called unhealthy rise, which I feel a continuous rise without a minor retracement is unhealthy and totally unbalanced. I'm now wearing an American Cap, with my hands waving the US flags. I'm now on one-sided trading, all on Long USD/CHF without even a single trade of EUR/USD. This is practically not my style of trading but I guess with this experience, I will get to understand my system more in practical, not only on theory basis. I'm feeling not comfortable seeing a huge negative on my trading screen with nothing to balance it, makes me feel extremely vulnerable and unprotected. Now, the only choice I have is to wait patiently for a reversal which I expect to be next week after a few days of range trading. Hopefully this is the last spike of EUR/USD psychologically testing it how far it could go then head for a retracement at 1.23 then head upwards again to test 1.35 ground. A perfect scenario, in fact a dream scenario.

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Existing Trades
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Long USD/CHF @ 1.2000 ( Position Trade )

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2050, TP @ 1.2100

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2280, TP @ 1.2330

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380, TP @ 1.2430

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Trades I'm Waiting For
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50-pips series continuous from 1.2000 except the existing ones above.

This marks the end of the second week trading for May. I'm looking forward for a more profitable 3rd week of trading which carries the hope of getting back in line with my equity curve that marks the $177.27 mark by the end of the third week excluding interest rates. I'm now at only $159.31. Hope and pray hard.

+203.5 pips: Highest Profit Booked Per Day, Reversal Sighted for EUR/USD.

Today is a terrible trading day during the Asian and London session although it's a special day for me. Personally, I couldn't beleive that the reversal would be sighted to quickly. After the Federal Reserve put a hike of 25 bps to 5.00% yesterday it turned out that the market is extremely choppy today. Seems like a left over of the rate decision. The market today is very uncertain. I've took profit of all my EUR/USD trade because of the following reasons.With the German GDP (QoQ) it was surprisingly lower-than-expected was released during the Asian and London session,which the price was then lingering around 1.2750, then continuously without any intention of gaining of prices then by the EUR/USD dropped to 1.2720. Surprisingly with the German GDP reported low, Euro-zone GDP reported matching the consensus... but still no reaction from EUR/USD except the price keeps on falling. Finally, a higher-than-expected GBP Industrial Production pushed the dollar so much lower for GBP/USD, but I've seen no movements or upwards at all for EUR/USD. It could be traders are taking advantage of the weak Euro today to sell EUR/GBP. These are all the reasons that helped me to decide wrapping up my position trade 1.2610 @ 1.27135 before the US data Advance Retail Sales, expecting it to be higher-than-expected or matching consensus which will add another reason for buying US dollar. Another reason i wrapped up 1.2610 is that I wouldn't be around to catch the US economy report. Well, I couldn't only say that I wouldn't want to take a risk in case it went against me.

We will see more data released tomorrow which will be another of fundamental day. The data released will be the German CPI,French CPI both QoQ & YoY. A US Trade Balance report which have reported much narrowed deficit last month which I feel will give us another surprise of even narrower Trade Deficit due to the currency gains of Yuan & Yen. I would mostly wouldn't make any trades tomorrow and take this opportunity to carefully observe the market and plan for the trade for next week, which I've been expecting a reversal. This reversal or a major retracement will be highly volatile has been expected since 2 weeks ago. The sign is now clear with a negative divergence were sighted earlier at 3h chart and now a cross reversal candle immediately after the closing of the New York Session. I've already planned and placed trades for USD/CHF from 1.2230 to 1.2430 but if a reversal really happens, then it should not stop until it reaches at least 1.26.

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Completed/Closed Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2610, Closed @ 1,2713.5 (+103.5 pips)

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2760, TP @ 1.2810 (+50 pips)

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2810, TP @ 1.2860 (+50 pips)

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Existing Trades
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Long USD/CHF @ 1.2280, TP @ 1.2330

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380, TP @ 1.2430

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.05

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Trades I'm Waiting For
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Long USD/CHF @ 1.2230 ( This will become my position trade )

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2330, TP @ 1.2380

A 50-pip series of USD/CHF trades will be placed accordingly if reversal happens. I've no longer position any trades for EUR/USD currently, but if EUR/USD decides to be bullish again, then I will position my trade after I'm sure of the market trend.

+50 pips: FOMC Raises Interest Rates from 4.75% to 5% overnight, Will the Fed Raise Interest In June?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had decided raising the interest rates of 25 bps to 5% today. However, the consecutive 16th rate hike is not the main focus of the week. It's the speech that is what most traders are looking for. Below is the key statement from the speech from the FOMC:

"Some further policy firming may yet be needed to address inflation risks."

"The extent and timing of any rate increases will depend on the outlook for the economy."

"2 CPI Numbers, 2 PPI Numbers are crucial determining the June FOMC decision."

The Feds have choose the words with extreme caution to leave their options open, a possibility of a pause or a continuous hike in June 29th FOMC meeting. Upon the announcement of the rate hike, the EUR/USD dropped of almost 50 pips down from prior 1.2800, however, the significant strength of support at 1.2760 is undeniably strong and hard to break as 2 attempts to break the point after the announcement. I see a good opportunity for traders to get on the 'Euro-up-hill-train", when a small fundamental-retracement occur. Soon after the drop, the EUR/USD continue to break the highs and reached a high of 1.2833 of a point and building a support at 1.2810 area. A drop is also sighted for USD/CHF after ONLY 5 minutes after the announcement. The drop of the USD/CHF is however much larger than the gains in EUR/USD. The economy data from the US zone will now be crucial for the rate decision in June 29. However, the experience of FOMC meeting is always exciting to observe. Choppy markets and high volatility situations, however are very dangerous to trade. I managed to catch a trade @ 1.2760 after the FOMC announcement but failed to reach it. Seem like the Euro supporter is holding to their Euro hard. The bias is still Long EUR/USD. A reversal might be near and the rally might be an end. As I've said, 1.29 will be a crucial point. With this new system, I've yet to trade a reversal yet as I've been focusing on Long EUR/USD all the while ever since I am using Oanda Brokerage.

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Completed/Closed Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2760, TP @ 1.2810 ( +50 pips )

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Existing Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2610 ( Position Trade )

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2810, TP @ 1.2860

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380, TP @ 1.2430

Long USD/ZAR @ 6.0500

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Trades I'm Waiting For
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2860, TP @ 1.2910/00

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2280 ( Position Trade in exchange for the existing USD/CHF above)

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2330, TP @ 1.2380 ( 50 pips series will be continued with a series of 50 pips if reversal is detected for EUR/USD)


The German GDP will be reported tomorrow and will be one of the key sign that will push the ECB for a 50 bps hike in June. It's now the ECB vs. The Fed. However, seems the sentiment of "Bull Euro" has returned as it was previously that traders will ignore good data of the greenback and intensify the weakness of the greenback. For the Euro, it's totally reverse of the Greenback. We will see further raise of the Euro against the USD before a strong reversal to be seen.

+100 pips : Euro bulls resumed while awaiting Fed rate hike by FOMC.

It's inevitable to notice that the Asian and London Session is getting more and more quiet these days and primary moves are only noticed during the New York Session. I managed to position a trade after the retracement yesterday. I've increased my account leverage from 3% to 6% per trade as I've gained more confident on the system I'm using now. In 2 weeks time, if it went smoothly as planned. I will increase my trade leverage to a maximum of 9% and I will trade with only 9% from now on. I managed to make 2 new trades today for EUR/USD with new leverage @ 1.2680 & 1.2730. To protect against my losses in the daily interest rates of EUR/USD, I’ve managed to short USD/ZAR @ 6.05... hoping that instead of even out my interest deficits everday it would bring me profit in long term as well.

In 2 weeks time, I hope to see EUR/USD to reach 1.30 although 1.29 for me is a critical reversal point and if a break upwards above 1.29, it will serve as a great support for the EUR/USD. However, this week’s crucial data release would be tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision where it’s expected by all an increase of 25 bps and a pause will be expected after tomorrow’s hike. This will trigger further EUR/USD rally towards 1.28 and probably breaking it. However, if the Fed signals that the hike will happen but not until 5.25% or 5.50% we will see further retracement of EUR/USD. In which happens, my bias is still towards Euro which I believe the current sentiment of majority traders are with me.

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Completed/Closed Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2680 , TP @ 1.2730

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2730, TP @ 1.2780

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Existing Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2610 ( Position Trade )

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2760 , TP @ 1.2810

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.05

I strongly believe tomorrow will be a better market to trade in as more important data of Euro-Zone, British and Greenback will be released and we will see big trading range hopefully. I currently have no trades planned further except the 50 pips series I intend to continue until the EUR/USD reaches 1.30.

Boring Monday...

A new day of the starting week seems boring to me. When the market was back on trading yesterday Sunday 2.30 pm EST, it reacted as it was expected, with the continuous rise of EUR/USD. During the Asian & London session, it was very EUR/USD supportive with the Euro-zone & German PMI reported good and the prices being pushed to break 1.28. The goal seem so near yet so far at 5 am EST where the day high is created at 1.2782. At 6 am EST, 3 hours prior the New York opening, the EUR/USD seems to go for a big dip with almost of 100 pips to a low of 1.2692, with continuous drop of prices, this retracement has created oppurtunities for traders that missed the Friday rush to make their entry before the EUR/USD resume their rally again. I would expect the EUR/USD to reach 1.28 by the end of the week along with Bernanke's comment of the rate hike pause. In 2 weeks time, the EUR/USD will eventually reach 1.30. However, it was noticed that 1.29 served as a strong resistance for EUR/USD. So, it's to be wary that a breakout or a reversal might be seen near the area. I don't see reversal signs at the moment but if a reversal is seen, I would pick a strong point to make entry in the USD/CHF with my series of 50 pips as the reverse trend takes place.

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Existing Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2610

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2760

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380

The current trades for EUR/USD is still in profit if I decide to close my trades now, which I wouldn't do so unless a clear reversal sign is given. So let's hope for a better day tomorrow... *prays to Forex God*