Friday, May 26, 2006

Market Sentiment Is Turning USD Bull.

Unexpected high new home sales, strong Annualized GDP, personal consumption, and increase in initial job employment has caused this new direction. Market expectations of the Fed raising interest rates in June 29 FOMC Meeting is getting stronger. Despite the slow down in Durable Goods Orders and the New Home Sales which was said notoriously inaccurate number AND Annualized GDP is lower 0.5% than expected. It's seem that the market is seeing USD bull no matter what is it. It's been range trading mostly within this week and particularly not much of movements in currency except for commodities. Gold has been hiking and fluctuating as much as 5% per day which directly influences the market price in the currencies and the USD is the major crosses in the currency. I'm expecting gold to fall more until it continues the bull rally. When that comes, I'll be involved in Euro heavily and maybe 1 or 2 units of gold for long term trading. Until then, I won't make, any new trades on EUR/USD and USD/CHF. I would now like to cover all my negative trades in USD/CHF which the highest trade I got stands at 1.2380.

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Existing Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2860

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2910

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2960

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2085

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2100

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2240

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2280, TP @ 1.2330

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380, TP @ 1.2430

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Trades I'm Waiting For
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Gold @ 600

I'm hoping to see Friday sell offs to be active today instead of range trading in Asian and London Session.

Wednesday, May 24, 2006

New Home Sales Saves the day again for the Greenback.

I've not made any new trade in almost 72 hours.The amount of time represents the duration of the currency market trading in range, probably longer. Finally with today's market with market's anticipated for the German IFO as the key indicator of the day. It turned out good enough to bring euro bull back in the original bullish trend line. However, the market showed reaction as little as 25 pips within the first 20 minutes and low volatility were spotted. It was followed by the U.S. Durable Goods Orders reported lower then expected furthering the euro bulls higher attempting to break 1.2900 but was terminated at 1.2890. Followed by the next hour is the New Home Sales for the month of April was reported much higher than expected. This higher than expected home sales data has caught the market with surprise due to the increase in mortage loan interest in April that would naturally cause a fall of numbers in home sales. Well, the market got caught off guard, was extremely bullish and HOPEFULLY PLEASE, this movements does not end now and hopefully with more USD data tomorrow, more actions will be seen.

Trades remains unchanged and will only be updated when trades are closed or opened.

Tuesday, May 23, 2006

Gold Recovery, Forex Back To Range Trading

Gold resumed to it's recovery after the drop in the prices become a buying opportunity for the COMEX traders. There's not much action seen in forex market as it's pretty boring for the past 48 hours. I hope tomorrow's German IFO could create some movements... The situation is more likely the similar as yesterday with not much of directional movements itself. We're now very dependant on economic data to see an interest hike will or will not happen in June 29 FOMC Meeting. My existing trades are still the same as the previous day with no changes.

Monday, May 22, 2006

-2900 pips: Gold ruined everything...

My 2 week effort and profits were gone in just 1 trade. Gone with the gold. I've closed my gold trade at a major loss for my account that took all my profit with a big chunk from what I've started. But what's worse is not the money lost in gold, what's not expected is the loss created by gold has creates disequilibrium within my active trades which I currently have problem with. The market practically is just trading without a direction today bearish and bullish with no proper signs, seems to be purely out of random movements. What a hell day for day traders, and damn me for being stupid enough to actually buy gold when the dollar gains. I must regret that what I pay for this mistake is much more than the pips itself. I'm hoping things would be better day tomorrow with better trading directions.

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Completed/Closed Trades
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Long XAU/USD @ 665.70 , Closed @ 636.70 ( -2900 pips/ $ -29.00 )

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Existing Trades
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Long USD/CHF @ 1.2085

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2100

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2240

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2280

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2860

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2910

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2960

Short ZAR/USD @ 6.05

ZAR/USD is being a pain in the ass for me. I hope to close this trade as soon as possible. and hopefully which clearer tomorrow I could do that.

Today shall be my most fucked up day in since I trade in Oanda.