+100 pips: Hawkish Comments from Fed Officials Bulls USD

The day 'started' during the Asian Session closing where Friday sell-offs with hawkish comments from the Fed Officials has caused the USD to bull from a low of 1.2075 to 1.2140 in an hourly candle. This bulls rush is followed by London opening session where london traders took over the bull and continue to push it even further, making news highs at 1.2220. I'm more than happy to take this opportunity to cover my negative trades on the USD/CHF and if this USD bull ends, I will trade aggresively & heavily on EUR/USD my bias for the year remains EUR/USD.

The dollar was sharply higher, reaching 8-day highs against the euro and 11-day highs against the yen on growing expectations that inflation concerns may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise US interest rates again in June. There are several factors contributing to the USD bull

1. The stronger-than-expected CPI reported this week has pressured the Fed to continue raising interest rates of another 25bps to 5.25%.

2. Comments from Bank of Japan governor Toshihiko Fukui were viewed as less hawkish than expected.

3. I think inflation is well contained and will be and inflationary expectations are well contained,' said U.S. Tresury Secretary John Snow.

These factors has contibuted to the USD bull by making traders believe that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates of another 25bps to 5.25% to curb inflation factors. We will most probably see the greenback continue to bull next week until the end of the month. The positive sentiment of the greenback is very unlikely to last long.

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Completed/Closed Trades
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Long USD/CHF @ 1.2140, TP @ 1.2190 ( +50 pips )

Long USD/CHf @ 1.2190, TP @ 1.2240 ( +50 pips )

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Existing Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2960, TP @ 1.3010

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2910, TP @ 1.2960

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2860, TP @ 1.2910

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2085 ( Position Trade )

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2100 ( Position Trade )

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2240, TP @ 1.2290

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2280, TP @ 1.2330

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380, TP @ 1.2430

Long XAU/USD @ 665.7

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.05

I'm still looking forward to cover my negative trades at USD/CHF before USD bulls sentiments reverses to Sell-USD Sentiment. I'm starting to make trades in Gold or also known as XAU/USD. With the USD gaining ground against major crosses today including commidities such as gold and silver, I'm expecting USD to continue to bull further next week. In order to cover my expensive negatives in gold, I will trade more aggresively in USD/CHF in order to contain my losses within my margin before I have a margin call. It's very risky but I'm very certain that the gold will continue to recover from this drop.

Candle contained within yesterday... Could it be a breakout setup?

US Data released yesterday brings the greenback to a higher ground breaking trends and reversal in play. The dollar gained 200 pips yesterday after the news release from US CPI which is caused by traders who's shorting Dollar to withdraw their trades fearing that the strong CPI will pressure the Fed to raise interest rate of another 25 bps to 5.25%. However at Chicago Fed Banking conference today, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke did not make any statement regarding the monetary policy but however Bernanke mentioned about the economy and financial system will reap 'substantial benefits' from the new global financial risk management structure known as Basel II, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday. Bernanke said implementation of the new standards for bank regulation and supervision should proceed.

'To make that framework achieve what is intended requires getting the details right'

US data released today is utmost disappointing with initial jobless claims increased 42 grand making this month 367 grand jobless people. This was largely due to a partial government shutdown in Puerto Rico, the Labor Department reported Thursday. It's the highest level since early October, when claims were inflated by the damage caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. It was the largest weekly gain since early September. Without the 46,000 extra jobless claims from Puerto Rico, seasonally adjusted initial claims would have been around 312,000, a Labor Department spokesman said. The Leading Indicator reported is very disappointing as well with a fall of 0.1% in April, with three of the 10 indicators improving. The coincident index rose 0.2%, while the lagging index rose 0.3%. However the monthly indicator rose 0.4%

'With the price of oil still around $70, and with interest rates slowly rising, the economy isn't likely to be picking up steam,' said Ken Goldstein, an economist for the private economic research group'

I'm still heavily trading one sided with USD/CHF but I believe that USD will still make a come back gaining to at least 1.2300. There's no US data tomorrow but with Eurozone German PPI and French GBP, England's Public Finances and speech from ECB's Liebscher and rhen speaks in Brussel.

Technically, we will not expect USD to break yesterday's high today, making today's candle contained within yesterday's candle. I would expect tomorrow would be the same way range trading 50 pips range. Then we will possibly see a more interesting week next Monday which is the final week for May. Hopefully traders are with me now. Nothing that I can do now except to wait and balance.

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Existing Trades
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Long USD/CHF @ 1.2085 ( Position Trade )

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2100 ( Position Trade )

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2140, TP @ 1.2190

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2190, TP @ 1.2240 ( What a hell of luck, it took my trade at 1.2190 but my TP at 1.2140, TP @ 1.2190 was not close due to the spread. I was 3 pips away from taking profit... So close yet so far )

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2280, TP @ 1.2330

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380, TP @ 1.2480

If USD really comes into my desired direction then I will consider to close all of USD/CHF trades. Closing all my negative trades at USD/CHF as my bias for the year would still be Euro gaining higher probably 1.40. This retracement that I was expecting finally happened and now I'm heavily engaged in it. May Forex God Bless My Account.

Battle Results : USD Bulls, Euro down

This is what I've been expecting after 2 days of tight range bound trading. As usual, Asian Session is pretty quiet and calm while market starts to heat up during the London Session where the Eurozone Data and GBP data is released. Mixed data were seen throughout the whole session of Eurozone and British Pound data. French data were not seen reported today leave me clueless for French Non-Farm Payroll. Meanwhile for GBP, the Bank of England minutes showed a 6-2 vote of leaving the rates unchanged for next month. With a 2 vote on hand to actually agree to hike raise, this push the dollar lower making GBP and EUR higher than in the hour. Plus Iran presiden Mahmoud Ahmednijad rejected the UN proposal to suspend the uranium enrichment programme. This makes the political instability that traders will feel safer investing in gold instead of holding the dollar. This results to the the gold reaching to a high $ 716.50 per ounce earlier afternoon. The Eurozone CPI were reported positive for the Euro currency with core CPI, CPI MoM slightly higher than expected and CPI YoY matching consensus of 2.4%. This has caused EUR/USD to gain grounds, breaking the channel upwards, penetrating 1.2900 showing all EUR/USD positive sign. But traders throughout the whole remains sidetracked leaving the first half of the battle EUR/USD trading at higher price. These traders know that the real battle would be the second half, the New York Session.

The New York Session came, it starts the fight, it kills. Leaving many Euro bull traders lying dead on the floor. The CPI reported were all reported higher-than-expected. The market was practically dumbfounded after the report where traders are still analysing to go BULL USD or BULL EUR. Due to the past few weeks of EUR BULL frenzy, market has been denying good USD data and persuing higher EUR. After 5 minutes, the slaughter begun, with a volatility covering 60 pips up and down. No day trader could survive that hike and fall in such short time. It initially going upwards, which indicated market favoring Euro bull trying to hit 1.30 for the last time giving way to USD to gain ground. In fact, it was a trap. It made me beleive it was going for 1.30 and I placed a trade at 1.2910. After the trade was taken, I realised I was caught in the bear trap. I quickly balance my expected 2 negative trades for EUR/USD with USD/CHF with initial position trade at 1.2085, followed by 1.2100. I will continue my 50-pips series trade from 1.2140 to start taking profit.

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Existing Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2910

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2960

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2085 ( Position Trade )

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2100 ( Position Trade )

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2140, TP @ 1.2190

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2190, TP @ 1.2240

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2280, TP @ 1.2330

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380, TP @ 1.2430

I'm practically waiting for my 50-pips series trade to open and complete one by one. Sweeping a whole load of pips for me. I'm totally out balanced and all into USD now. This trend is expected to last 1 week or the most it could last for the entire month,

EUR/USD & USD/CHF Channel Formed, Going UP or going DOWN?

The battle of the week has started today with channels form as a bloodbath battle between the Bull and the Bear. Who will win? The stage is set for the bloody battle that will take place tomorrow with billions of players on the line and trillions of cash waiting to be traded. The range bound trading today is super tight with only 50 pips range for EUR/USD and 60 pips for USD/CHF, each preparing for the big fight tomorrow. Euro bulls are seen temporarily sidelined waiting for more data to indicate the June FOMC rate pause as a signal again for the Euro to bull again. These sidelined traders are gathering ammunitions to be used for tomorrow's battle, between 2 parties and a whole load of cash. Since I'm hedging I will profit from whichever direction the market moves, making me as the Trader-On-The-Fence. But I do have a perfect scenario that works best for me to get maximum profit in this battle leaving me alive, slightly richer from the money taken by the 'dead' traders. I would hope to see the fundamentals released in the Eurozone push the EUR/USD to reach 1.3075, then for risk-averse Euro bull traders, they would take profit and jumping on the USD bull's back would likely create a retracement, a major one where a quick retracement and volatility will be expected. It could last for days or until the end of the week. I would hope to see that EUR/USD retraced to 1.2300 and then reverse going high up where the sky is the limit for EUR/USD. I would earn hundreds of pips throughout this process and hopefully enough to get me back on my equity line which is still in the weekly deficit.

Today's highly anticipated data was disappointing for the USD bull traders, which reported weak Core CPI and Housing Starts although CPI reported slightly higher than expected of 0.9% vs. 0.7% consensus. It was overall bearish data for the greenback which adds another reason of why traders should sell the dollar instead of buying them. Tomorrow we'll be expecting French Non-Farm Payroll report, ILO Unemployment Report from the GBP, Eurozone CPI, Core CPI & Industrial Production and the highlight of the day would be US data of CPI & Core CPI which will determine the Federal Reserve Rate hike decision at the FOMC meeting in June. But I strongly believe that if the CPI reported was weaker than expected, the Euro bulls will take place and probably pushing the EUR/USD to a high of 1.40 breaking the 2005 high. BUT with the dollar losing so much ground to the Euro in such short time, I believe we would see the bank intervention by the Federal Reserve to gain back some grounds by raising interest rates UNEXPECTEDLY that will almost immediately kill millions of Euro Bull traders. This is a point where it must be highly observed.

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Existing Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2860 ( Position Trade )

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2960, TP @ 1.3010

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2140 ( Position Trade )

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2280, TP @ 1.2330

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380, TP @ 1.2430

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Trades I'm Waiting For
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2900 ( Position Trade )

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2170 ( Position Trade )

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2190, TP @ 1.2240 ( 50-pips series from 1.2140 )

I'm heavily engaged in USD/CHF more than EUR/USD and I will have to equilibrate my trades properly to avoid margin call caused by USD/CHF in case EUR/USD went too far from expected or vice versa. I just hope to that I don't have to manage 3 negative trades on the opposite direction of the trend. Tomorrow will be The Day...

+100 pips: TIC data far below consensus, Euro rally ends?

Every Monday seems like a boring trading day. After a 5-weeks rally of EUR/USD today will be seen as a retracement day for many, leaving traders undecided whether to continue the rally or the reverse. All possible technicals showed a retracement for today and it DID happened as I expected, a 100-pip drop from the high of the EUR/USD. I left 1 position unclosed which I positioned earlier @ 1.2960 and it was taken this morning on the opening market of the new week. After the observations, I've positioned a trade at 1.2860 which is the support for the EUR/USD. It was taken as well. With the 100-pip dropped, I took profit on 2 of my USD/CHF trades @ 1.2050 and 1.2100 respectively, knowing that this retracement won't last long as the bias is still the EUR/USD long. It's been reported as well that the the central banks except the BOJ are still selling the dollars. While anticipating the release of the TIC data at 9 pm EST, the market was making minor movements leaving the prices trading in a tight range, which will leave us trading in range bound. After this a big breakout will in play, either a BIG way up, or a BIG way down.During the New York session, the capital flows into the United States (TIC) fell to a significant low of $ 69.8 billion which is a major improvement for the USD, another sign of USD bull. The market trading quietly and a battle between EUR and USD took place and there's no apparent winner yet. I have placed a position for USD/CHF @ 1.2140 which is above the 200 SMA on the 1-hour chart. I think we will see more range bound trading in the following days to come, another indication of a breakout in play.

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Completed/Closed Trades
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Long USD/CHF @ 1.2000, TP @ 1.2050 ( +50 pips )

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2050, TP @ 1.2100 ( +50 pips )

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Existing Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2860

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2960, TP @ 1.3010

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2280, TP @ 1.2330

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380, TP @ 1.2430

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Trades I'm Waiting For
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2760 ( This will become my position trade when taken )

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2910, TP @ 1.2960

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2140 ( This will become position trade if reversal )

My view is still EUR bias until the end of the year with the ECB still raising rates AT LEAST 3 more times and the Fed is planning to pause the rates. I am beginning to worry that if the greenback lose too much ground too fast, they might call for an unexpected hike in June FOMC Meeting. This will KILL alot of Short Dollar traders IMMEDIATELY. So a retracement for the day is actually healthy. Hoping to see a better and clearer day tomorrow.