+100 pips: Euro stays firm on narrower than expected Current Account Balance.

It surprised me to see the narrower Current Acount balance but the effect still remains EUR/USD standing firm. I took profit on my EUR/USD trade with 100 pips profit. Fundamentals are showing stronger economic growth for the US but I strongly believe this is not going to last for long as weaker USD data will start to show.

My my new system, I'm doing a full year calculations on weekly, monthly, and yearly backtest with appropriate leverage. Still incomplete though but the current test are considered satisfying but more calculations would be needed.

I wish I could type more about my fundamental analysis but the calculations has made my brain very tired as I couldn't think more. I will spend my weekend doing the calculations as I'm expecting to slowly switch to this system with a personalised leverage.

*yawn*

Debilitation Period For Greenback.

Strength and momentum from USD bull is slowly shifting side as more and more expected weak data signalling economic slowdown is reported more from today. Empire State Manufacturing, TIC ( Net Foreign Security Purchases), Industrial Production, Philadelphia Business Activity ALL dropped below consensus. For USD there were positive surprises as well, Jobless Claims were down to 4-month low. Yup~ Only one... higher CPI proved negative for the greenback as investors are worried about the slower growth. Adding fuel to fire today, the TIC showed a drop as much as 33.6% from the month of of April. This is highly negative as TIC is crucial in supporting the nation's humongous current account deficit. This drop in TIC is mainly caused by investors and traders are lacking of confidence in the US economy as the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke continues to signal higher interest rate to curb inflation, ignoring the slowdown in the economy. I'm expecting a deficit of at least -228B for US current account balance which will be reported tomorrow. For the Eurozone CPI, the report matched consensus as the CPi remains unchanged at 2.5% YoY and 0.3% monthly and core CPI in 1.3%. The Euro losses it's momentum previously as ECB President Trichet was being neutral in interest rate decision and refuses to use the word 'vigilant'.

From my analysis, dollar has a plenty more to lose in the coming weeks and months and very little to gain. Price of commodity has gained stability after the turbulent drop especially in gold after a drop almost reaching $50 per ounce. In order for Euro to rise, it needs lots of strength and push. Excellent Eurozone data is needed, but I've no doubt that the retail sales in Germany would definately rise thanks to World Cup hardcore fans.

Another of my EUR/USD trade is taken today due to the high volitility. I'm looking forward to close all my trades without any negative and looking forward of using a new system. For details of the system please click here. No changes of trades today only a trade taken for EUR/USD @ 1.2650. ZAR is still being a pain in the ass for me. I really hope i can eliminate it soon. For whoever's is looking to buy ZAR... I'd suggest NO!

+63 pips: CPI reported great for inflation... but is it still good for the greenback?

Main highlight for the day would be the CPI numbers. Everyone's expecting high consumer price index (CPI) because with PPI up for May, there's NO way it's coming out lower than expected. Leaving options open for only matched consensus or HIGHER than consensus. But somehow to my surprise... the market finally see something that was 'right' and they're suppose to notice it last month... not this month. The attention finally went to the slower growth in the US if interest rates keep on rising. CPI reported matched consensus while core-CPI was a little higher than consensus... the immediate reaction was dollar bullish, bringing USD/CHF up to 1.2380 while EUR/USD dropped to 1.2530 low where it was the major support line where the upward trend for EUR/USD initially started until it reaches 1.2979. It was rumored that large Asian Central Banks are buying at 1.2530 to support the EUR/USD, bringing the pair immediately 100 pips upwards and sustaining the move. That is one strong move...

For my trades, I should have taken my profits when the price reaches 1.2400 yesterday... Instintively I wanted to take profit on these trades, but the devil's greed seems to get over me... I did not take profit and decided I will not settle for anything less than 1.2430. Now I have 3 neg USD/CHF to handle as the consequences... While my friend has been wiped out because of the gold trades that cost him $911, bringing him back to stone age where he initially started. After a whole day of discussions of a new and better trading system, we've finally got one still put it in tests. However, backtest on the system looks good for now. I took a dip in EUR/USD at 1.2550 which is a support for the pair.

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Closed/Completed Trades
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Long USD/CHF @ 1.2220, Closed @ 1.2270

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2270, Closed @ 1.2283

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Existing Trades
=============

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2550

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2820

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2960

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2320

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2370

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.7000

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.5800

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.0500

I'm a little disappointed with my profits today as I could have easily made 4 times more the profits yesterday. I guess it's a turn around for the current sentiment... seeking more opportunity to gain back what I've lost...

Seventh Consecutive USD Bull Day.

Today is a day to remember. Nikkei stocks dropped lowest in 2 years, led by our favourite brand, Sony. Asian stocks continue to tumble today thanks to inflation factor from the United States. From the Eurozone today, German CPI numbers matched consensus, showing steady growth in the country. For the wholesale price index in Germany is reported higher than consensus. This may due to the oncurring event in the country, World Cup 2006. However, the German ZEW Confidence fell again marks the consecutive 5 months low for the country. This however does not do much changes on the prices for EUR or USD as market was anticipating for PPI and core PPI data. Normally, ZEW does move the prices but it's just not happening this month. This could be the overwhelming expectations of the interest rate hike by the Fed by the end of the month.

The release of the Producer Price Index ( PPI ) contains mix data which the monthly PPI was lower than consensus but core-PPI ( excluding food and energy ) is higher than expected. This has caused the dollar to gain up breaking the high of yesterday reaching 1.2372. The market was pretty mixed up after the release causing big candles in EUR/USD and USD/CHF. But I'll be putting my money on USD... which I call them the 'safe' side. Afterall, if core PPI increased, how could the CONSUMER price index would be lower than PRODUCER's PRICE index. I'm expecting a figure of 2.4% for core-CPI tomorrow or higher. This will definately trigger bull USD and high volatility is expected.

The bull for USD has caused the continuous price drop in the gold, copper, silver... you name them. For gold, it's nightmare for those who's still holding Long XAU/USD. Today, Gold dropped to almost $40 an ounce... which makes price difference of $1411 per KG. That is CRAZEEEE..... All of sudden I felt I am so wise to take losses on gold even at that moment, I knew it could create a big hole in my account. Live to trade another day...

For my trial testing on strategies, I was looking to make 3% daily profit through day trading. I only buy on breaks and no more dip trading for day trading. I trade EUR/USD, USD/CHF, XAU/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, NZA/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF, EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF, CHF/JPY and CAD/JPY. I will analyse the current market sentiment then place trades accordingly towards the market sentiment. I will let the market choose which pair I would trade for the day. The first 5 trades triggered will be my profit trades. My reason for those 5 first trades, according to my experience is if the market is volative and active, it would start early as it represents there's a large amount of traders trading it. My breaking strategy works best only with major movements, whichever way it's heading. If anyone who reads this wish to try out this strategy, you're free to help yourself but don't hold me responsibility if losses occurred.

Today, I've traded LONG GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/JPY taken maximum profit for each trade of at average 50 pips for each pair of currency... I doubled my profit from 3% to 6.2% That is an excellent result and I will continue this until the end of the week. Proving this strategy and technic would be useful.

Trades remains the same as yesterday and looking to take profit on USD/CHF 1.2430. Hopefully it's gonna happen. Praying to forex god...

Low Fundamental Day continue to push USD higher.

Starting of the week is always no fun game... With very little to expect but so much to hope. As usual, the Tokyo session is sleepy for EUR/USD and USD/CHF but London session starts with gold dropping $602.80 then gains back while EUR/USD and USD/CHF is still trading in range but bigger range bounds. Approaching New York open, USD starts it's hike upwards making new highs from Friday. At the same time, gold came back up to $610 and I would say miracle as you don't get to see USD and Gold gaining at the same time. It usually goes in the opposite direction of one another.

I'll be expecting another 150 pips drop for EUR/USD and vice versa for USD/CHF. Expecting EUR/USD to reach 1.2500 and USD/CHF to reach a high of 1.2500. I will take profit for my current 3 USD/CHF trades at 1.2430 with a handsome profit to completely bring me back to an account balance without any negativity that was caused by gold. This is probably the wave down for EUR/USD and same for USD/CHF except in the opposite direction. I will start getting back in EUR/USD @ 1.2500 and would start my EUR/USD without any negative on USD/CHF hopefully.

Fundamentally, we'll mostly be expecting bearish USD data as slower economic growth has taken place in the US economy due to the interest rate hike for the past 16 months. If an interest rate hike took place this month, you can't expect to see results next month. It usually takes 6 to 12 months to actually see results from the hikes, this means that the following months to come, we can expect very very bearish USD numbers. Since the current market sentiment would still be USD bullish, one way to fade the sentiment for good is low CPI numbers, inflation numbers for the month of May. That is IF Ben Bernanke doesn't pull another crazy stance in front of the mic and starts to be unreasonable hawkish again. If he does that despite the low numbers, he will be punished like what the public did it to Trichet months ago before Euro starts to rally hitting a near to 1.30. Whatever the Fed wants, the public will be doing the opposite.

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Existing Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2820

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2960

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2220

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2270

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2320

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2370

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.7000

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.5800

Short USD/ZAR @ 6.0500

I'm testing out some new strategy to improve my trading signals and will be doing something major soon, cooperation with a friend, Greg. I'll always be seeking chances and any opportunity to increase my leverage and my skills in trading currency. I'll be looking ahead to trade more currencies in future. Not gonna let go of any chances to improve my life and and for all... Life is like trading in the forex exchange, you got the timing right and your trade will be sailing high with profit, get in the wrong price and timing, you'll have a terrible time coping with your negatives. Same thing that goes with life...