Oh Honey.... Oh Silver, Silver, Silver...

The U.S. economy is moving in the way just Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke wanted. Through the past few meetings including the FOMC rate decision date, Bernanke is currently happy with the growing economy with moderate inflation numbers but the jobs report refuse to fall. Bernanke will sure be the happiest person today as employers in the U.S. added fewer workers than forecast last month and the jobless rate rose, evidence of an economy growing at the moderate pace predicted by the Federal Reserve.

The 111,000 increase followed a 206,000 rise in December that was larger than previously estimated, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6 percent, the first increase in three months, while gains in pay slowed. Meanwhile, factory orders placed with U.S. factories rose more than forecast in December on higher demand for business equipment, motor vehicles and aircraft, a sign manufacturing may weather its current slump.

The 2.4 percent increase followed a revised 1.2 percent increase in November that was more than previously reported, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Excluding transportation equipment such as Boeing Co. jets, bookings rose 2.2 percent after falling 0.4 percent.

Confidence among U.S. consumers rose to the highest in two years last month as gasoline prices eased and the job market expanded.

The Reuters/University of Michigan's final index of sentiment increased to 96.9 in January from 91.7 in December. The figure compares with a preliminary reading of 98 released on Jan. 19.

The supporting news of the world's largest economy has now seen the bright light at the end of the tunnel. A number of lower inflation has made commodities such as gold and silver lose its appeal as a hedge against inflation. Therefore a huge red candle is seen for gold and silver market, the one I waited for 2 days ago.

I'm glad it happened.

Throughout the past few sessions, commodities has shown significant strength of bullish and yesterday's commodity bull market has somehow lost it's strength as the climb in prices was quite vigorous and it hasn't shown any retracement, a sign of healthy growth.

I've previously positioned a limit trade of long 430 units of silver(XAG/USD) @ 13.4130. This trade seemed impossible to reach during the Asian, London and early New York session. The supporting news above has made it possible. Seeing the trade triggered and price continue to fall lower, I've placed another trade. 430 units of silver @ 13.3000.

After this big fall, I hope the price doesn't jump from a cliff that has bottomless landing point. I am expecting consolidation in prices and supported from investors after the fall today. If price continue to fall further I will make another purchase of silver at a new low. If there's a big drop, I'll look forward to buy it again. Commodities rally has just started, and it's nowhere nearing the end yet.

Oil prices will continue to rise as supply and demand imbalances are growing much apart as supplies are slowly depleting and demands are rising everyday. No new rigs have been found recently and even it's been found lately, the process of extracting the oil and bringing it to market will take decades. Meanwhile, oil supply is depleting. Oil rises... commodity rises.

Happy Trading Everyone!
Best of luck!

Boring.... Boring... Trading day.

After exciting moments I had yesterday, another hopeful day comes today as I anticipate more movements from the market. In fact, it was pretty boring for the whole session. I didn't actually made any profit today even I placed 2 trades... a few minutes before the last rally begins. I purchased 430 units of silver @ 13.6650 and 13.7900 respectively. The price fluctuates and increase and I finally closing my positions with only USD 2 profit. lolz. Count it as lucky as soon after I close my positions, it feel immediately a big red line. So, now i'm out of trades again and will place new trades based on retracement or another consolidation. Hoping for a better tomorrow

happy trading

Silver STRIKE 3!!! Another Day With Great Profit.

As I've forgot to mentioned yesterday, I've took profit on all of my trades... all except 1. 400 units of silver @ 13.4000. I've saw silver's performance yesterday and it's simply amazing. This morning when I woke and start looking at the charts again, seeking an opportunity to make another trade, and of course... looking at the over-all short term trend at the 1-hour chart. Immediately I saw consolidation of silver prices and I planned for my next move. I drew the uptrend channel line for silver in the 1-hour chart and found the potential price it might reach just before London or New York open. The channel I drew shows a potential drop for the day reaching 1.2600. I decided to place a safe trade at 1.2750.

Within a few minutes after I placed the limit trade and it was 30 minutes before London open, it went exactly what I had in mind earlier. The trades were triggered and it showed amazing strength of support, unlike of what I've seen in the normal trading days. I was determined that today will be different.

I was right again.

After the volatility session on higher than expected inflation number of Annualized quarterly US GDP reaching 3.5%... higher than what the market has in mind. Inflation will trigger hedging in commodities. Another supporting reason on today's bull market. It went for a long-green candle bringing me another profit of USD 83 (rounded down).

So, I therefore conclude my trading profits for month of January ends at 17.7% profit. Starting on January 24 with USD 1000 + 177.49 (minus daily interest rates).

I'm expecting silver price to have a small retracement and consolidation around 13.4000 level. which then I will again make another entry. My strategy has always been the same, always buying at the new lows or a.k.a. buying a dip. I've removed my stop-loss strategy because whenever silver has reached a considerably 'cheap' price... there's always investors/traders seeking to support it. A commodity always means a value for someone...

There's few things that I would need to improve myself... First, choosing a good entry point. In my past few trades, I've done some mistakes in entry, ending up in huge drawdowns, the highest I had so far is 30% drawdown. It was scary. Believe me. Perhaps it was luck and it went back up.

Second was my take profit exit, I seem to always take profit a little bit earlier than I should. If I had take profit at the accurate time... I am 100% sure that I'll be making more than 20% profit for this month, which ended up only 17.7% profit. These are the two things I need to seriously work on it.

Anyway, for those who wish to provide me some advice or suggestions please do so because I might need some help afterall. I've sign-up for the 7th Annual Forex Forum which will be held in London somewhere around May. Anyone interested in going as well? Please do email me.
gohrayson@yahoo.com. Hope to hear from you guys soon.

P.S. I've been getting alot of visitors but none has actually emailed me. Is it me or .... ?

Silver Does It Again!

It starts looking like another tough day, ends up to be a happy ending afterall. My persistent in silver has brought me profit again, as I've been doing more researches yesterday and I managed to convince myself that today isn't a day for commodities to crash. An article from Kitco.com suggests that when Spring(March) starts, gold and silver will on the bull rush again, gold potentially reaching USD 730/ounce and breaking it and silver potentially reaching USD 19.20. All of this price movements is just the warm up of the actual thing that is yet to come. Corrections is a must in commodities market as it's no heaven trade and goes up the time, if it goes up all the time, every single trader in the world would dump all their money in commodities. Too bad this doesn't happen. Anyway, let me re-list all my trades

400 units of silver @ 13.4000
360 units of silver @ 13.2800
240 units of silver @ 13.2750
320 units of silver @ 13.2000
280 units of silver @ 13.1380

After I completed writing my blog yesterday, I continue to observe for any sign of recovery in the market. No sign of recovery but it somehow managed to find a support at 13.2000 area, that's when I made another purchase of 320 units of silver. The whole night (time in Malaysia GMT+8), it just maintained itself at 13.2000 range. A new day with hoping for a better tomorrow.

During Asian session of a new day, silver shows no sign of strengthening or positive outlook, instead it shows consolidation, a sign of make-or-break. Late Asian session at estimated 2 am EST, silver dropped to a significant lower price, by then I'm already having a drawdown at more than 25% of my initial amount. As I'm still feeling a comeback, I make another purchase, 280 units of silver @ 13.1380.

My view in the market proves on the right move after I made 13.1380 and as soon as it reaches a new opening hour, I knew silver reached the low where it'll attract traders to purchase it. Once the London market opens, silver market shows improvement and potential break and looks very promising for a profit.

In the matter of fact, it did. I managed to take profit (earlier than what I had in mind due to much persuasion from my partner) around 1.3000. This early profit has earned me 9.1% of profit which is around USD 91. I've set an aim to earn 20% before the end of January and tomorrow is the last day... I doubt myself the rally of the market these days will bring me another 11.9% within 24 hours itself. However, this disappoints me.

I've done some research myself on what is silver being used for and the supply and demand. Questions popped in mind, " Does it matter?" The answer is "YES". Most market pushers for commodity market is the supply and demand. Below is the list of the uses and the supply demand data that I've managed to find through a free source in the internet. I'm planning to get the latest 2007 CRB Commodity Yearbook which contains essential information of every commodities trader would need.

Uses

Demand for silver is built on three main pillars; industrial and decorative uses, photography and jewelry & silverware. Together, these three categories represent more than 95 percent of annual silver consumption. In 2005, 409.3 million ounces of silver were used for industrial applications, while over 164.8 million ounces of silver were committed to the photographic sector, and 249.6 million ounces were consumed in the jewelry and silverware markets. Why is this indispensable metal in such demand? The reasons are simple. Silver has a number of unique properties including its strength, malleability and ductility, its electrical and thermal conductivity, its sensitivity to and high reflectance of light and the ability to endure extreme temperature ranges. Silver’s unique properties restrict its substitution in most applications.

It's been used for Batteries, Bearings, Brazing and Soldering, Catalysts, Coins, Electrical, Electronics, Electroplating, Photography, Medical Applications, Jewelry and Silverware, Mirrors and Coatings, Solar Energy, Water Purification. So tell me, how much does silver worth to you?

Happy Trading Everyone! Have a nice day!

Unfavorable Commodities?

China imports more copper, colder weather in US, potential in OPEC cutting oil supply, Iran back in nuke-talks... All of this doesn't matter to the world market as they pay attention more on US economy comparing with the Japan Government on retail sales, focusing on Japan's inflation.

Just great.

I've doubled up my amount of silver to 1000 units since commodities continually decline and running a negative and a drawdown reaching more than 16% of my capital. To be frank, I'm a little worried. Somehow it's the natural instinct to be scared.

However, I'm still confident of the commodity market as lower price will trigger buying interest in worldwide interest especially in worldwide concern of inflation now. Lower oil price has caused economies throughout the world to grow considerably at the 'wrong' moment. Higher oil prices will cause economy to stagnant and lower oil prices will cause unnecessary inflation. It has to be maintained at the 'right' level.

Therefore, I am not too worried about the commodity market price level. Most of people will see a drop in commodities market as a bear. I along with other millions of smart investors will see it as a buying opportunity.

STRATEGY

I will continue purchase commodities when it's reaching new low. I intend to purchase another 500 units of silver when the price reaching 13.1500. Price decision might change a little bit but shouldn't be anywhere far of difference.

I expect commodities to make a comeback within this week due to lots of inflation numbers that will be released from US, Euro and Japan.

If something unexpected happens ( like gold & silver reaching significant low or high), I will update this blog later again at 2am EST. Otherwise, I'll be back here tomorrow.

Happy trading.