Which Way Would It Go? Argh....
Okay, after weeks without trading, I'm feeling that my skills in analysis and trading are deteriorating. It sucks to feel this way... Which way would it go? As I'm mainly a fundamentalist, market sentiment and bias is always very important to me. I've just finished reading about 80 newsfeeds from Bloomberg, Dailyfx and other bank researches, trying to get a hold and impression towards on which way would the majority of the market will go. But the thing is... I can't seem to find IT!!! In anyway, I'll always try to make my best anaylsis for my reader's by sharing my knowledge and views and also improving of what's left of me.
Everyday is a learning day. Imagine that if skipping school/college for more than 1 month and then you've all those homeworks and revisions to catch up. That's how I'm feeling now... sucks big time.
My all time favourite EUR/USD.This pair of currency is what I'll try to avoid as far as possible. Why? Mostly is because that the impact of volitility from the uncertainties between 2 central banks has made the pair merely ranging in a very very big channel. Estimated a channel of 450 pips every now and then throughout these months since Euro reached the high-of-the-year at 1.2978 where everyone was expecting it to hit 1.30, the major barrier of the time. USD isn't reacting the right way it should be, even with USD growth weakening, inflation levels is still above the comfort zone of the FOMC Chairman Ben Bernanke which is between 1% to 2%. Fed Kohn has maintain his hawkishness mainly focusing in fighting inflation and let the largest economy fall into the drain describing as the slump in the housing market is merely 'temporary'. Another recent event was the North Korea making a dateless announcement that they might be testing nuclear missiles. Risk-averse traders now flock to the 'strongest' country in the world for shelter, buying greenbacks and stock them under their beds. You know... just in case of Nuclear War. The reaction is exactly the same when North Korea launched Taepodong 2 quite a few months ago, everyone buys USD for safe haven.
My view is that United States is a country that has the LARGEST trade deficit in the world with over $60 billion dollars every month to cover. They mainly supported by the overseas investments or mainly known as TIC report. Over the recent months, TIC has reported lower and lower, meaning less cash flow to the country mainly caused by the slower-than-expected economic growth from the beginning of the year. My bias would be negative for the dollar on the long term. Long term would be in years to come as the world strongest economy will not be as strong as it is now in years to come.
Commodity such as Gold and Silver has declined greatly mainly due to the high interest rates charged of XAU/USD and XAG/USD. But the main movers in the market is always the physical demands. The market is currently favored by the physical demands of gold below the price of $600. The other factor is the cooling crude oil prices which significantly lowers the global inflation level making gold losing it's appeal as the trade against inflation. If oil maintains at this level, I'm not expecting gold to be any much higher above $600.
I will end my blog here for the day. I've still got plenty to write but unfortunately I've got insufficient time. I'll resume blogging as soon as I can. Happy Trading!
Everyday is a learning day. Imagine that if skipping school/college for more than 1 month and then you've all those homeworks and revisions to catch up. That's how I'm feeling now... sucks big time.
My all time favourite EUR/USD.This pair of currency is what I'll try to avoid as far as possible. Why? Mostly is because that the impact of volitility from the uncertainties between 2 central banks has made the pair merely ranging in a very very big channel. Estimated a channel of 450 pips every now and then throughout these months since Euro reached the high-of-the-year at 1.2978 where everyone was expecting it to hit 1.30, the major barrier of the time. USD isn't reacting the right way it should be, even with USD growth weakening, inflation levels is still above the comfort zone of the FOMC Chairman Ben Bernanke which is between 1% to 2%. Fed Kohn has maintain his hawkishness mainly focusing in fighting inflation and let the largest economy fall into the drain describing as the slump in the housing market is merely 'temporary'. Another recent event was the North Korea making a dateless announcement that they might be testing nuclear missiles. Risk-averse traders now flock to the 'strongest' country in the world for shelter, buying greenbacks and stock them under their beds. You know... just in case of Nuclear War. The reaction is exactly the same when North Korea launched Taepodong 2 quite a few months ago, everyone buys USD for safe haven.
My view is that United States is a country that has the LARGEST trade deficit in the world with over $60 billion dollars every month to cover. They mainly supported by the overseas investments or mainly known as TIC report. Over the recent months, TIC has reported lower and lower, meaning less cash flow to the country mainly caused by the slower-than-expected economic growth from the beginning of the year. My bias would be negative for the dollar on the long term. Long term would be in years to come as the world strongest economy will not be as strong as it is now in years to come.
Commodity such as Gold and Silver has declined greatly mainly due to the high interest rates charged of XAU/USD and XAG/USD. But the main movers in the market is always the physical demands. The market is currently favored by the physical demands of gold below the price of $600. The other factor is the cooling crude oil prices which significantly lowers the global inflation level making gold losing it's appeal as the trade against inflation. If oil maintains at this level, I'm not expecting gold to be any much higher above $600.
I will end my blog here for the day. I've still got plenty to write but unfortunately I've got insufficient time. I'll resume blogging as soon as I can. Happy Trading!
posted by 4xTrader at
4:10 AM
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