+100 pips : Low Non-Farm Payroll Figure Boost Euro...

A disappointing day for those who's expecting USD to gain back against dollar after the Non-farm Payroll reported only 138'000 is added against the expected consensus of 200'000. But definately I'm not disappointed and in fact I was delighted! The only part I regretted was not being fast enough to place a trade at 1.2595 after the data was released. It was seen that the EUR/USD is lingering around 1.2580-90 area for most of the day setting up the channel with a trading range of approximately 35 pips which was considered smaller than the one which was created yesterday before the ECB rate decision. The move was too fast after the unexpected lower-than-expected NFP is reported. Even I was expecting strong NFP to support the greenback to move the Euro slightly lower attracting more traders and then head for the line of 1.28. During the Asian session and London session, it was expected to see not much of action as the market is anticipating the supposedly 'strong' NFP. But unfortunately, it turned out the other way. A screw up day for greenback traders.

However, with the oil trading lower today, less than USD 70, with a supportive Personal Income data which was released earlier of the week and a strong NFP figure would create a reversal at a faster pace for the EUR/USD but seems currently, it's not gonna happen. I would see the price hit 1.29 or might even touch 1.30 now. I might be wrong though, but the market will tell me the answer. The Friday New York session closed, EUR/USD is at 1.2727 and USD/CHF at 1.2262. The closing for the EUR/USD is near a fibo line 61.8 measured from today's low to today's high. Temporarily, a reversal sign has not shown up yet but a drop for EUR/USD below 1.2620, I would consider taking profit for my trade at 1.2610. While anticipating on the May 10 FOMC rate decision, I will still go long in EUR/USD. My next trade would be 1.2810 for EUR/USD, 50 pips from my last position taken, just for profit taking. I might even place another position at 1.2735 going Long on EUR/USD. This would however depends on the market on Monday. Hopefully, this rally will continue for a few more days hopefully reaching for a high of 1.3000.

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Completed/Closed Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2660, TP @ 1.2710 ( +50 pips )

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2710, TP @ 1.2760 ( +50 pips )

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Existing Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2610

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2760

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380

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Trades that I'm still waiting
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2810

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2860

This would be the trades that I'll be waiting in case the Euro continues to rally, however if the greenback takes advances, I would see it as a temporary retracement if the advances are not too much.Then I would put a trade at Long EUR/USD 1.2645 the 2nd of May opening price.

Jean-Claude Trichet : ECB will exercise 'strong vigilance' against inflation risk

European Central Bank Chairman, Jean-Claude Trichet is hawkish to during the news conference of the ECB Rate decision for June, and the interest rates remain 2.5% for May. If the economic growth is maintained further withdrawal of monetary accomodation will be warranted, in such practices, the ECB is very much likely to raise 25 bps in June and another 25 bps in September.

Yesterday the New York session ended with a high of 1.2636 for EUR/USD and throughout the Asian & London session, trades were formed in a channel awaiting the ECB decision on the interest rates for the pair, until late London session where EUR/USD were seen bearish breaking through down-side of the channel signalling a bearish EUR/USD. But this could be a false breakout which is to attract more traders as a chance to go long on the euro dollar. Turned out that the market is fundamentally driven by the hawkish statement made my Trichet signalling a hike of expected 25 bps in June although he's not ruled out the 50 bps increase. The euro dollar continue it's rally on the uptrend breaking the resistance of the Tuesday high-turned-resistance at 1.2669. Currently the pair is trading at 1.2684.

Seems that the EUR/USD is losing it's energy trying to break the 1.2700 which was said to be heavily guarded or it's accumulating enough energy to penetrate through 1.2700. 2 scenario is now expected as the next move

Scenario 1:
If EUR/USD reach 1.2700 just for the sake of reaching it without any aggresive price movements, most likely it will head back down for a big retracement.

Scenario 2:
If the EUR/USD breached 1.2700 aggresively then we'll most likely seeing the pair hitting a high ground of 1.3000. Then a big retracement of the euro-dollar. A happy ending for me.


If scenario 1 happens, I would close my position when reaching 1.2700 and take my profit for the EUR/USD @ 1.2660. Then I would have another Long USD/CHF position to breakeven my EUR/USD trades.

If it happens to be scenario 2, then I will continue to take profit every 50 pips the EUR/USD gains, I've positioned my trade all the way to 1.2960. So from there if the reversal sign is sighted. I will go Long USD/CHF for breakeven purposes and go on from there.

Personally, I would prefer scenario 2 to happen but the market ain't your bitch. They don't care what you want or how you want it to happen. Instead they will try to 'out-run' you so you'll be eaten by the 'bear' instead of them.

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Existing Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2610

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2660

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380

Boring Tuesdauy - Market Awaits Decision from ECB

The market is moving in a tight range and theoratically went unchanged. The Euro-zone Umployment Rate, the PPI came out as expected so it didn't not push the dollar higher and even the U.S. Factory orders & ISM Non-Manufacturing data was released higher than expected. The bull rush for the greenback short-lived , which last only for 10 minutes.

I'm still holding the trades as yesterday and I'll receive my daily 1 cent interest from USD/CHF. We'll hopefully see more action on Thursday with much awaited ECB rate decision for the month of May.

-115 pips - Uncertain Tuesday, FXCM account down

Thanks to Bernanke for making the statement of " market misinterpreted the the fed rate hike pause testimony' to the CNBC reporter after the weekend dinner at the white house. I blew up my FXCM account with a negative of 55 pips. So I've nothing to left to in the FXCM account, and again... Thanks Bernanke for blowing up my account.

On the other hand on with Oanda, unsure of the certainties of the Fed decision after Bernanke's statement to CNBC reporter, I've bought USD/CHF @ 1.2380 to protect my losses against the dollar in my 2 positions in EUR/USD and I've positioned my trade 50 pips from the price I bought the USD/CHF @ 1.2430 in case dollar starts to start a breakout after 6-days rally of EUR/USD. In 4 hours, my trade at at 1.2430 was taken with dollar still in play thanks to the US data ISM plus Bernanke's statement.

The strong dollar continue to rise to a high of 1.2450 today during the closing of Asian session today. That left EUR/USD around 1.2560 which is the price in Friday before Euro hikes to 1.2600 ground. The bullish greenback today was terminated after the release of the GBP PMI data reporting higher-than-consensus despite the Euro-zone PMI reported higher than expected as well except Germany which remains the same as March of 58.1. With the dollar starts to drop quickly, and my maximum percentage per trade exceeding 9%. I had to make cuts on trades I do not find comfortable with, which then I decided to close the position at 1.2430 @ 1.2370 with a - 60 pips loss. I've made a tough decision, deciding on USD/CHF @ 1.2430 and I feel I've made a right choice. I was holding USD/CHF @ 1.2380 & 1.2430 with 223 units each, which means $0.02 per pip while my trades at EUR/USD @ 1.2610 & 1.2660 @ 107 units & 178 units, respectively, adding up both trades, I was only making $ 0.02 per pip and IF the moves continue to EUR/USD, I would have a large negative at the USD/CHF with my margin sucked into it. So, I've to cut the position with the highest risk and on the view of the long-term, I've decided to cut a position of USD/CHF @ 1.2430 even with -60 pips. It's the term that George Soros said that " Live to trade another day... " Sounds pretty useful for me today. My trades for today are the existing EUR/USD pairs with a new pair of USD/CHF.

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Existing Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2610

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2660 , TP @ 1.2710

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380

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Closed/Completed Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2650 - FXCM Account Margin Call @ 1.2595 ( -55 pips )

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2430 - Oanda Account closed @ 1.2370 ( -60 pips )

Seeing the greenback failed to rally, and with the oil prices soared high to $ 74.80 from Iran crisis, the attention is back to the 1.30 target in 3 months time. A breach on 1.2700 is likely to attract the investors back to the EUR/USD pair.

Quotes from economic experts,

"ECB likely to reinforce expectations for a June hike, the market may be tempted to see if EUR can breach the now critical 1.2700 level in the not too distant future."

"ECB could potentially come as early as this coming week. Here’s why:

Admittedly, ECB President Trichet had more or less ruled out a May rate hike during the Q&A session of the April press briefing. But a number of Council members have tried over the last few days to re-open the debate. Both Executive Board members and national central bank governors indicated that the timing and possibly also the size of future interest rate moves is flexible. As a result, the market has started to toy with the idea of a larger move of 50bp at the June meeting. But, currently, it is not pricing in more than a 25bp move at that meeting. At same time, the market still regards the probability of a move this coming week as rather remote, with an implied probability of around 25%. In my view, financial markets should be more mindful of the fact that any guidance given by the ECB President at one of the monthly press briefings is conditional on the information available at the time and the discussion at the Council meeting. Like any other central bank, the ECB rightly reserves the right to change its mind when the facts change..."

"Influential consulting shop Medley Advisors is out saying Maria B's interview with Bernanke is nothing new and that the Fed is still likely to pause soon"

Sources from Detached Trader

A breakout in play ?

The labor day for the major markets today including France, Germany, Italy and United Kingdom shows a quiet day in play for the forex market until the New York Session where work is as usual. The anticipated news of the Personal Income and Personal Spending for the month of March showed highly unexpected rises of 0.8% and 0.6% respectively. It's consensus for both is only at 0.4% The market did not show much reaction to the data until the release of the ISM Manufacturing and ISM Prices Paid for April, where again showed another US positive data of 60.4% and 71.5% respectively. The consensus was at only 55.1% for ISM Manufacturing and 67.0% for ISM prices.

The effect of the all-positive data for the greenback showed response as the market moved pushed EUR/USD from the day-high of 1.2686 all-south reaching 1.2596 low in 3 hours. Could this be a breakout for the EUR/USD pair after rallying for 7 days? It's reported that an indication of bullish USD will be :

1. Strong Personal Income Reports
2. Price of oil < $ 70
3. Non-farm Payroll Exceeding 200K

This week will not be an easy week as the previous week with crucial data releases for both Euro and USD. However I've prepared my trades for both ways, EUR/USD & USD/CHF.


Account: Oanda

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Existing Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2610

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2660

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2380

Account: FXCM

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Existing Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2650
TP @ 1.2680
10 lots.

With the ECB still seeking to raise the interest rates more than the Federal Reserve, I still see EUR/USD will continue to gain reaching a high of 1.3000 . Only a matter of time...