Non Farm Payroll Lower Than Expected; Added 121,000 Jobs in June.

My prediction for the NFP was 85'000. It came out 121'000. Yes, I'm might have missed the numbers but I definately did not got the whole picture wrongly which painted up to perfection of USD bearish.

On July 5th after the Independance day, ADP, the world's biggest paycheck processor, and Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in St. Louis, estimated the U.S. economy added 368,000 jobs in June. That speculation has caused USD to gain considerably great amount of pips from the EUR/USD. It's somehow like the party is setting up the USD to fall today. However, Hourly earnings rose 3.9 percent from June 2005 and the unemployment rate stayed at 4.6 percent marking the increase the most in five years. From the overall view of the current economic release, the sentiment has not been dollar bearish even with higher wage inflation numbers. But 1 factor still worries me alot is the high oil prices which has again broke a fresh high of $75.50 per barrel today following with the weak dollar.

For the Eurozone, we only have the German industrial production increased the most in a year in May, further evidence that Europe's largest economy is weathering higher interest rates, record oil prices and a stronger euro. Global demand for German goods is fanning investment at home, boosting hiring and consumer spending. Accelerating economic growth in the dozen euro nations prompted European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet to signal yesterday that the bank may step up the pace of rate increases to damp inflation.

The chances of the Fed raising interest rates early next month has now dropped to a probability of 50-50. But chances from the way I'm seeing it, a pause is on a higher probability because the Federal Reserve has already decided to be focusing on growth as well instead of inflation alone. This will cause a big shift of sentiment among traders because 17 consecutive interest rate hike will definately 'injure' the economic even back then it was robust enough to withstand it. I'm still targetting and expecting 1.30 or higher for EUR/USD within 2 months. If the sentiment remains the way it is right now.

For my live account, I've placed a trade at 1.2870 which has yet to be taken. Nothing much happened for the live. For my demo, I made some recovery on my account after losing a whole bunch of it yesterday after I hold 1.2770 from yesterday, closing at 1.2830, 60 pips profit with $730 per pip, totalled $43800. I'm still looking to make money everyday in the demo account on scalping 10 pips a day minimum from EUR/USD with maximum leverage.

May the Forex God and the Lady Pips stay by my side at all times.

ECB & BOE Leaves Benchmark Interest Rates Unchanged.

Both Central Banks had made decisions to leaves their interest rates unchanged for the month. However, for the European Central Bank (ECB) may indicate it's ready to raise borrowing costs as soon as next month to counter inflation. The head of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, warned that the central bank would not hesitate to take tough measures to curb inflation and used the word 'strong vigilance' against inflation, suggesting the ECB will raise its benchmark lending rate as soon as next month.

"We will exercise strong vigilance so as to ensure that risks to price stability over the medium term do not materialise," - Jean Claude Trichet

The bank has an inflation target of 2%, but European statistics body Eurostat said prices rose 2.5% in the year to June - the third month in a row that inflation was above the target level. The growth in the Eurozone economy is robust with the day's industrial production reported that European manufacturing expanded in June by the most since August 2000 and services grew at the fastest pace in six years. Euro-region unemployment declined in May to the lowest since October 2001, pushing the jobless rate to 7.9%. For the Bloomberg Retail PMI released today, the Eurozone Retail PMI fell to 55.1 in June from 56.3 in May. There were falls in the Retail PMIs in Germany and Italy with a number of 54.7 from 60.4 and 48.9 from 49.3 respectively. However, the most surprisingly as-usual-weak-country France showed a significant surge in the Retail PMI to as high as 60.3 from 56.9. These number reported adding salt-to-injury to the Euro currency and and reaching as low as 1.2723 after the release. German Factory Orders for the month of May dropped 1.2% from April BUT showed an impressive increment compared from the previous year, a number of 17.3% increase and luckily the news were not taken as a bearish signal for traders in the market.

For the US Market, we've only a few release for the day as STILL the weekly main focus will be on the Non-Farm Payroll of the week with the expectations this time very much higher than expected from the fellow traders of the world since the release of a private report estimated U.S. companies added 368,000 jobs in June, the most since 2001. How far is that true? We'll find that out pretty soon. For the day we have ISM Non-Manufacturing Indexed for the month of June showing weaker number of 57 compared to 60.1 in the month of May. ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices too showed a weaker number of 73.9 to 77.5 in June. These so-called 'weak' reports has a little influence on the market signalling infaltion target in the country but does a little help for the EUR/USD currency to gain some grounds lost after the missile launch. There were some reports today that saying slower retail sales gains as a jump in gasoline prices curbed spending and flooding discouraged shoppers on the U.S. East Coast in June. This has added to another point that the economic growth in the US is cooling considerably BUT as a point here is important is that IF people continue to have jobs they will continue the spending. Here we'll have it back to the highlight, another weak NFP for the month and we'll mostly see Fed pausing in August which DIRECTLY means USD is gonna take a jump off the cliff. But if it happens otherwise, we'll see USD gathering more ground against the major crosses across the globe.

I frankly speaks that my analysis for the NFP will not change and will stick to my results of 50K to 85K for this month. Even an improvement recovery in the employment status for the US will not surge as much as expected from what I see with the economy now is cooling and prices is still up high. However, I'm predicting that the Hourly Earnings for the month would be particularly high as the employers decide not to recruit more staffs in the company, they would eventually raise some of their salary. A very simple link of my analysis between the Non-Farm Payroll and Average Hourly Earnings.

I was practically not home to watch the prices and charts yesterday as I had some travelling to made leaving me perfectly clueless of what happened for the day. For my live account, I have it well balanced with 3 EUR/USD and 3 USD/CHF in case either way bulls or ECB President is dovish. BUT for my Demo account which is responsible to provide results for the month by just scalping 10 pips per day, has a huge loss for the day. I made some silly mistakes which I shouldn't have... Trading with a tired mind and body and trading without catching up with the fundamentals. These 2 mistakes made me lost almost of $60'000 in my account, and not to mention taking every profit I've made previously plus a big hole of my starting fund. So a word of advise... Always keep a clear mind and get your fundamentals updated before you place a trade eventhough it looks very attractive to you from the chart.

+320 pips: North Korea Missle Lauches support the US dollar once again.

A day with a totally unexpected event that North Korea launched at least 6 ballistic missiles that ends up to in the Sea Of Japan. Morning in Asian market is quite a chaos starting with plunge in the stock market and the currencies in the zone where risk aversion traders are switching their money intially to gold then to the US dollar seeking safe haven. Much of the fundamental didn't really played they role today as the market's concentration are mostly focused on latest development on the North Korea launching missle crisis. North Korea was given warning from several 'big shots' inclusing China, and United States saying the action could be extremely provocative and the latest missile Taepodong 2 rocket potentially reaching Alaska from North Korea although it only survived 45 seconds after the launch before ending up as another collection in the Sea Of Japan.

The good Eurozone data and the promising decision from the ECB Rate Decision tomorrow doesn't seem to matter anymore as North Korea and fundamentals release from the US zone had outshoned the expectations from the Eurozone. PMIs from Eurozone were overall better the expected beating consensus except for Italy. The Eurozone PMI was reported highest since June 2000 failed to bring Euro back up from the fall. However at the moment like this where everyone's paying attention for bearish signals for the Euro currency, the Eurozone Retail Sales for the month of May fell -0.6% from April. Another reason to sell the Euro, so they say...

For the fundamentals coming out from the United States, Factory Orders reported higher than consensus for the month of MAY, up +0.7% and EX-Defence New Orders +0.8%.Another supportive dollar statement from private report based on payroll data estimated U.S. companies added 368,000 jobs in June, the most since 2001. The report comes two days before the government releases its monthly labor report. Today's report is compiled by Automated Data Processing Inc., the world's biggest paycheck processor, and Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in St. Louis. The company says there is a 90 percent correlation between its data and the government's private employment figures. Cheers and applauds were definately heard from the dollar bull traders as they once again having hopes again for another rate hike.

For my live account, I had to put stop loss to secure my earnings and prevent my losses as I see Euro has no intention of stopping the bear from attacking the 12-nation currency. Stops were triggered for 4 of my positive trades giving me 310 pips recording highest pip record ever earned in my experience with Oanda. Even though the money is not much after falling again and again from gold but it managed to compensate something in return. I'm not expecting ECB to hike rates tomorrow but a hawkish statement from the ECB President Trichet would definately bring traders back to support the currency.

For my demo, I had huge losses in the early London session where an unexpected turn after EUR/USD reached 1.2837 almost immediately incurred a loss of $15'000. However, I managed I placed another trade at 1.2770 after the feigning recovery and set a stop loss 1.2790, returning all my losses of the day with an extra of a few thousand bucks. It's been pretty great trading experience with high leverage and minimum to aim. But high gain has a potential to incur high losses as well.

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Completed/Closed Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2590, Closed @ 1.2730 ( +140 pips )

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2620, Closed @ 1.2730 ( +110 pips )

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2670, Closed @ 1.2730 ( +60 pips )

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2720, Closed @ 1.2730 ( +10 pips )

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Existing Trades
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Long EUR/USD @ 1.2770

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2820

Long EUR/USD @ 1.2960

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2340

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2480

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2501

Long USD/CHF @ 1.2520

At the current short term view, USD rally will most likely to be back to dominate the currency market with the North Korea tension, and Fed expectations back in discussions. As I sometimes really think and confused... How could we let something which happened 2 months ago in May determine on whether the Fed should raise interest rates in FUTURE. Anyone knows this answer please email me @ gohrayson@yahoo.com. It seems to me that this is 2 month laggish indicator which shouldn't have any major effects on the currency market. I think today's just another day when something happens unexpectedly and good data continues to support the greenback.

Independance Day continues the Euro hike.

The day with little expectations from the market since the US Market is closed for the big day. EUR/USD has reached 1.2820 once again yesterday during mid-London Session but failed to sustain the momentum. Eurozone PPI for the month of May matched consensus of 0.3% MoM and 6.0% YoY signalling economic growth for the year overall maintained strong while the monthly PPI were lower from previous month. The market is still not ruling out the ECB rate hike as soon as this week and if it's being done this week, we could possible see EUR/USD testing for 1.30 again at a faster pace. However, a pause for the ECB doesn't necessarily spelling doom for the currency, unless it's accompanied with a dovish statement from the 'action hero' Jean Claude 'Van Damme' Trichet. The possibility of this scenario to happen is still highly unlikely seeing the the eurozone economic growth is still robust and wouldn't have any problem to manage higher interest rates. A hawkish statement will however continue to push EUR/USD to a higher ground.

As the ECB hike is somehow 'confirmed' but the Fed hasn't really 'promised' a pause eventhough Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke already hinting that the next Fed Rate Hike Decision will fairly balanced on economy and inflation as well. The main push for the dollar to bounce back up is better than expected USD data a signal for USD bulls to show that the USD economic growth is not as slow as everyone expects it to be. The data that could bring up hopes the greenback to rise again this week will be the Factory Orders which is tomorrow, and Friday's Non-Farm Payroll plus Unemployment Rate for the month of June. If this is much better than expected, the hikes are back on the line.

Dollar Bears Continue To Dominate the Currency Market.

A day away from the Independance Day of the world's second largest currency exchange, United States has proved once again to be bearish and dollar against major crosses. This week started with a slight bullishness in the market for the greenback due to the rumors speculation that the ISM Manufacturing Index in June will show economic growth trading the EUR/USD as low as 1.2762 earlier.

Along side with the ISM Manufacturing Index, the reports earlier were all USD bearish with Tankan Survey reported that Japan's largest companies plan to increase investment at the fastest pace in 16 years, strengthening the central bank's case for raising interest rates as soon as next week. However, the market ignored the data because the issue is not the interest rate but it's when and partially the Governor Of Japan Fukui's investment scandal is left unsettled. This has caused Yen to lose some ground to the greenback in the Asian and early London Session. For the Euro-zone, Italian PMI, German PMI and Eurozone PMI were all reported higher than consensus except France remains flat from the previous month. The reaction to this releases were kind of slow mainly because the attention is now turned to the US economy growth and how the Fed sees inflation. But these data will show the ECB that growth in European manufacturing accelerated in June, evidence of a strengthening economy as the European Central Bank signals it may step up the pace of interest- rate increases. Some future traders are forecasting the hike could be as early as next week. Finally for the US ISM Manufacturing index, fell to 53.8 in June from 54.5 the previous month. This has caused dollar to return whatever they've gained in the earlier sessions against the euro and pared an advance against the yen after an industry report showed U.S. manufacturing slowed in June. Overall review would still be bearish on USD and prices has breached 1.2800 for EUR/USD in the early NY sessions today.

For my economic analysis this week, I would expect overall Eurozone(EZ) data to be supportive starting from June as signs are showing from the previous months that the EZ economic is robust. USD will continue it's bearish sentiment and chances of it reversing is there IF Non-Farm Payroll is reported around 150'000 to show employment picked up speed indicating possible accomodation for higher interest rates. Personally, I wouldn't expect 150'000 as these weakness from the US economic is just starting to surface. I'm expecting a number of 55K-85K for the NFP this week. With the pretty free kick-off week for the month of July, I'm not expecting the dollar to have any significant recovery unless miracle happens.

I'm beginning to do a demo testing today with a new leverage and testing, purely on scalping the market and tight stop losses. I started with USD$200'000 demo money. I bought XAU/USD @ 620 & 619.30 with only 9% leverage in the early Asian Session. I also bought 2 NZD/USD trades, 1 EUR/USD trade and sold 1 USD/CHF trade. For NZD/USD and EUR/USD trades, I followed 9% leverage while seeing USD/CHF is pretty strong during the Asian Session, I decided to be a contrarian and Sold USD and bought Swiss Franc with maximum leverage which amount to 6'333'112 units equilavent to $517 per pip. Things didn't really start out well and I waited patiently for the prices to go over mainly because I strongly beleive that my economic analysis for USD is right. No way the sentiment is gonna change without any convincing reports from the US. Scalping the market for a minimum 10 pips for each trade, I did not took profit when I reached the price, instead I follow tight stop losses for every 10 pips advances to my direction. Securing my minimum profit. Doing this in from of the computers today MAX of 5 hours only. I made USD$23'100... Cool no? I'll be continue to report my profit and losses in my practice account due to that I will be responsible my for company's foreign investment in a few months time. And I would definately need to get used to the big numbers. I'll be seeking to make at least USD$9500 daily, amounting to USD$190K per month. I'll not withdraw any money for at least 3 months or at least reaching 1 million mark and I'm very confident to reach it in less than a year's time using $200K as a start up capital.

For my live accoumt, I'm still holding multiple trades of EUR/USD most of them shows positive numbers. My negs are slowly diminishing now as the EUR/USD increases significantly daily and I'm expecting it to breach 1.30 this time. Hopefully on this coming week everything will be smooth sailing and so would be my project investment. A turning point in my life where everything gets better.